Apple has reduced component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, Nikkei Asia reported on October 9, 2026. October orders are said to be down at least 15% from the original plan, and the report suggests that price increases driven by soaring memory prices may have dampened consumer demand. Both models went on sale on September 18, with US starting prices $100 higher than the previous generation. Apple itself acknowledged, in a quarterly filing before launch, the risk that price increases could reduce demand. The report highlights a difficult problem manufacturers face: passing higher component costs on to customers does not guarantee that revenue or profit can be maintained.
A 15% cut in component orders does not mean iPhone sales fell 15%
According to Nikkei Asia's report, Apple has instructed some suppliers to reduce component production for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. October component orders were reportedly cut by at least 15% from the originally requested volume.
However, the 15% figure is only the reduction in component orders relative to the original plan. It does not mean iPhone unit sales fell 15% year over year.
For example, if the original production plan was set aggressively, Apple could still produce more units than last year even after revising it downward. The size of the order cut alone does not reveal how far actual sales have fallen.
It is also necessary to distinguish between orders for components and orders for assembling finished devices.
On the same day, October 9, AppleInsider reported, citing its own sources, that final-assembly orders for the iPhone 18 Pro had not been cut.
That account, however, does not cover the Pro Max, and it is not based on confirmed sales figures. Even so, it would be inappropriate to read the Nikkei report as confirmation that iPhone production overall has been reduced.
The two reports do not necessarily contradict each other.
In general, manufacturers can continue assembling devices with components they have already secured while reducing additional component orders. There is also a time lag between procuring components and assembling finished products.
That said, it has not been confirmed that Apple is actually making this kind of inventory adjustment. Even if orders fell in part of the supply chain, that alone cannot tell us about finished-device production volumes or consumer purchases.
The reported cut of 15% or more from the original plan is noteworthy, but the actual decline in sales and the extent of the price increase's impact on demand remain unclear.
AI demand is driving up memory prices, which are unlikely to fall even if smartphones sell more slowly
Behind the report is a surge in the price of smartphone memory.
In its quarterly filing for the period ended June 27, 2026, Apple said that supply constraints and rising costs are continuing for advanced semiconductors, as well as for NAND flash memory used for data storage and DRAM used to hold data temporarily during processing.
Apple expects the situation to become more severe and explained that even if it raises prices to offset component costs, it may not be able to sufficiently limit the negative effect on earnings. It also cited the risk that price increases themselves could reduce demand for its products and hurt revenue and margins.
This is not an admission of weak sales after the iPhone 18 Pro launch. But it shows that, even before launch, Apple was worried about both rising component prices and the potential drop in demand from price increases.
Strong demand from uses other than smartphones lies behind the memory price surge.
In a September 30 study, TrendForce noted that, given the high demand and profitability of memory for AI servers, memory makers are prioritizing advanced-process production capacity for server products.
As a result, even as demand for smartphone DRAM weakens, supply is unlikely to loosen, and prices continue to rise.
In other words, weaker smartphone sales do not necessarily mean component prices will drop quickly.
Even if device makers try to curb component orders in line with falling demand, memory makers have the option of directing supply to more profitable AI servers.
If Apple holds device prices down to maintain unit sales, rising component costs will squeeze its profits. If it passes the costs on in selling prices, more consumers may put off purchases.
Either choice involves some burden.
In a September 3 study, TrendForce had forecast that the cost of memory used in the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro would rise about 400% year over year in the July–September 2026 quarter, roughly five times the previous year's level.
However, this was an external estimate made before launch, not Apple's actual disclosed procurement prices. It is also a forecast that memory costs would rise about fivefold, not that the manufacturing cost of the entire iPhone would rise fivefold.
TrendForce had analyzed that even if Apple held down procurement costs for other components, it would be hard to fully offset the rise in memory prices.
Demand across the smartphone market as a whole is also hard to describe as recovering strongly.
TrendForce's forecast released on September 8 projects global smartphone production in 2026 at 1.07 billion units, down 14% from the previous year.
It said the market exceeded expectations in spring and summer because consumers, wary of further price increases, bought earlier than planned, and manufacturers restored production plans they had cut too far.
The firm estimates Apple's April–June 2026 production at about 52 million units, up about 14% year over year. However, that figure reflects sales of devices such as the iPhone 17 series and does not indicate how the iPhone 18 Pro, released in autumn, is selling.
How much can a $100 price increase offset a drop in unit sales?
The iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max each have US starting prices $100 higher than their predecessors.
Comparing the smallest 256GB models, the iPhone 17 Pro cost $1,099, while the iPhone 18 Pro costs $1,199. The Pro Max rose from $1,199 to $1,299.
With higher selling prices, revenue could be maintained even if unit sales decline somewhat. But the margin for that is not large.
A simple calculation using US starting prices shows that the maximum drop in unit sales at which revenue for the same model could be maintained is about 8.3% for the Pro and about 7.7% for the Pro Max.
The formula is 1 − (previous model's price ÷ new model's price).
- iPhone 18 Pro: 1 − 1,099 ÷ 1,199 = about 8.3%
- iPhone 18 Pro Max: 1 − 1,199 ÷ 1,299 = about 7.7%
This is an estimate using only the price difference from the previous model; it ignores sales tax and discounts and assumes all devices are sold at the 256GB starting price.
It is not an estimate of actual average selling prices, Apple's revenue per unit, or profit margins.
It also cannot be directly compared with the 15%-plus component order cut reported by Nikkei. The order reduction is measured against the original plan, while the price estimate is a comparison with the previous model.
What this shows is that a $100 price increase cannot make up for just any size of drop in unit sales.
Moreover, since component costs are also rising, even if revenue is maintained, gross profit may not stay at the same level.
In Japan, the increase in what buyers pay is even more striking.
Comparing tax-inclusive launch prices announced by Apple for each generation, using the same 256GB models, gives the following.
| 256GB model | iPhone 17 generation | iPhone 18 generation | Increase | Percentage rise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro | ¥179,800 | ¥219,800 | ¥40,000 | about 22.2% |
| Pro Max | ¥194,800 | ¥239,800 | ¥45,000 | about 23.1% |
Source: Apple's iPhone 17 Pro announcement for Japan and iPhone 18 Pro announcement for Japan. All figures are tax-inclusive prices at launch and do not account for trade-ins, carrier discounts, or post-launch price revisions. Percentage rises are calculated relative to the previous model's price.
In Japan, the iPhone 18 Pro rose by ¥40,000 and the Pro Max by ¥45,000. Both are increases of more than 20% over the previous models' launch prices, and the $100 US increase alone does not convey the size of the burden facing Japanese buyers.
Of course, a price rise of about 22–23% does not mean unit sales in Japan fell by the same proportion.
Actual payments vary with trade-ins and carrier discounts, and Apple's average selling price also differs depending on the capacity mix of models sold and the region.
Still, the sharp increase in the amount needed to buy the same 256GB model as last year is a factor that cannot be ignored when considering replacement demand.
iPhone Duo launches October 23, so this year's holiday season differs from the usual
In evaluating this year's iPhone market, it is also worth noting that Apple has staggered the release timing of its new products.
According to the official announcement, Apple's first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, opens for pre-orders on October 16 and goes on sale on October 23.
Its US starting price is $1,999. As of October 10, 2026, it has not yet gone on general sale.
Some consumers considering the iPhone 18 Pro may want to wait for the Duo's release before deciding which model to buy.
However, there is no data showing how many consumers who skipped the Pro models will move to the Duo, and the component order cut cannot be explained solely by waiting for the Duo.
As for the standard iPhone 18, TrendForce forecasts a launch in the January–March 2027 quarter. This is not a release schedule officially announced by Apple, but it has become difficult to compare sales trends on the premise that the main new iPhone models arrive together in autumn, as in past years.
If the high-priced Pro series and Duo go on sale first and the standard model joins later, total iPhone unit sales and average selling prices will also vary with the mix of models on sale.
Still, a change in launch schedule is a separate issue from cutting component orders for the Pro models from the original plan.
If Apple had built the delayed standard-model launch into its plans from the start, that alone could not explain the reduction in Pro orders.
On the other hand, it is too early to conclude that the entire iPhone 18 lineup is struggling based only on partial information about cuts in supplier orders.
What will matter going forward is actual sales data on how well the Pro series and the Duo each sell after the Duo's release.
Comparing the same regions and the same sales periods will make it easier to tell whether consumers are temporarily postponing Pro purchases or whether demand for high-priced iPhones itself is weakening.
In Apple's earnings, it will also be necessary to check not only total iPhone revenue but also how rising component costs affected margins and what the company's demand outlook is.
With memory prices continuing to climb, the question is how far Apple can maintain unit sales while securing per-device revenue through price increases. The reported cut in component orders looks likely to be an important clue to Apple's pricing strategy in the holiday season.