South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced on November 1, 2026, that October exports rose 93.7% from a year earlier to $115.28 billion. Semiconductor exports surged 259.4% to $56.44 billion, accounting for about 73% of the total increase in exports. Cumulative exports for January through October reached $930 billion, leaving $70 billion to go before the annual total hits the $1 trillion mark. However, the surge is not due solely to higher shipment volumes. Bank of Korea statistics for September show that the value of electronics exports, including semiconductors, is growing at a far faster pace than volume, suggesting that rising unit prices are a strong driver of the export expansion.
October Exports Up 93.7%, and Still Up 76% After Adjusting for Working Days
October imports rose 36.0% year on year to $72.78 billion, producing a trade surplus of $42.5 billion. Exports excluding semiconductors also grew 34%, showing that the expansion extends beyond chips. Kim Jung-kwan, South Korea's Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, said exports remained strong in October, topping $110 billion, and that reaching $1 trillion in annual exports in November is virtually assured. He attributed the performance to growing demand for semiconductors and other goods amid the expansion of the AI industry, as well as the efforts of Korean companies.
The headline 93.7% growth rate, however, also reflects the fact that the Chuseok holiday fell in a different month than it did a year earlier. In 2025 the holiday overlapped with October, whereas in 2026 it fell in September, so October 2026 had about 22 working days, two more than a year earlier. According to the ministry, average daily exports in October were $5.24 billion, up 76% from $2.98 billion in October last year. Even after accounting for the difference in working days, exports clearly expanded sharply.
The figures are preliminary values based on customs clearance data, published on the first day of the following month, and may be revised later. Indeed, October 2025 exports were initially reported at $59.57 billion, but working backward from the year-on-year growth rate in this release implies a comparison base of about $59.51 billion. A difference of this size does not materially change the analysis of what drove the increase in exports.
Converting to yen makes the scale easier to grasp. Using the midpoint of 157.79 yen per dollar, based on the Bank of Japan's published rate as of 5 p.m. on October 28, 2026 (157.78–80 yen per dollar), October exports come to roughly 18.19 trillion yen. The $1 trillion annual target equals about 157.8 trillion yen, and the remaining $70 billion needed to reach it is equivalent to about 11 trillion yen. Meanwhile, Japan's Ministry of Finance reported in its preliminary September trade statistics, released October 21, that Japan's exports to South Korea rose 35.5% year on year to 781.3 billion yen. However, because the months and currencies differ, that figure cannot be compared directly with South Korea's October exports.
Semiconductors Account for About 73% of the Increase in Exports
Semiconductors drove South Korea's export growth in October. Using the preliminary figure for October 2025 as the baseline, total exports rose $55.71 billion, from $59.57 billion to $115.28 billion. Semiconductor exports rose $40.71 billion, from $15.73 billion to $56.44 billion. Dividing the semiconductor increase by the total increase gives 73.1%, or about 73.0% when using the revised prior-year figure. In other words, semiconductors accounted for roughly three-quarters of the increase in October exports.
This share, however, also reflects the two additional working days compared with a year earlier. Exports other than semiconductors grew 34%, accounting for the remaining roughly 27% of the increase, or about $15 billion. Some non-semiconductor items also saw export values inflated by higher prices, so the increase in export value cannot be read simply as an increase in shipment volume.
The scale of semiconductor exports stands out even against past records. According to ministry statistics, October's $56.4 billion in chip exports was the second-highest ever, behind September's $60.3 billion. Memory products carry heavy weight in South Korea's semiconductor exports: in October 2025, memory accounted for $10.92 billion, or about 69.4%, of the $15.73 billion in chip exports.
Volume or Price? An Analysis of Bank of Korea Statistics
To judge whether the rise in export value stems from volume or price, the trade indices that the Bank of Korea publishes monthly are a useful reference. The bank publishes an export value index, which tracks dollar-denominated export value, and an export volume index, which tracks export quantities with the effect of price changes removed. Dividing the value index by the volume index allows one to estimate the change in export unit prices. However, because changes in product mix, such as a higher share of expensive products within the same industry, are also reflected in this figure, it does not match the pure rise in selling prices. According to the Korean outlet Ipokus, these indices are compiled from dollar-denominated values at the time of customs clearance and exclude ships, weapons and aircraft.
In the Bank of Korea's September statistics, export volume for "computers, electronic and optical equipment," which includes semiconductors, rose 46.6% from a year earlier, while export value rose 212.4%. Volume was 1.466 times the prior-year level and value was 3.124 times, putting the ratio of value to volume at about 2.13. In other words, although volume rose sharply, higher unit prices and a shift toward higher-priced products appear to have pushed the growth in value up even further.
A similar pattern appears in exports as a whole. In September, the export volume index rose 32.1% from a year earlier, while the export value index rose 89.2%. The rise in export unit prices implied by the ratio of the two is about 43.2%, exceeding the growth in volume. Ipokus reports that this 43.2% figure matches the rise in September export prices shown in the Bank of Korea's terms-of-trade index. These are, however, preliminary September figures, and the Bank of Korea has not yet published statistics on October volume and price movements.
The rise in chip prices can also be seen in fixed transaction prices for memory. Fixed transaction prices are contract prices that memory makers negotiate with large customers such as PC and server makers on a monthly or quarterly basis, as distinct from the spot prices used in short-term trading. According to ministry materials, the fixed transaction price for DDR5 16Gb rose from $8.70 in October 2025 to $40.0 in June 2026 and $50.0 in October. NAND 128Gb, by contrast, was flat at $30.6 in both September and October. These price trends are important for understanding the expansion in chip export value, but the fixed transaction price of individual products cannot be equated with the export unit price of semiconductors as a whole.
Among non-semiconductor items, some saw value rise even as export volume fell. October exports of petroleum products rose 80.0% year on year to $6.92 billion, but export volume fell 7.5%. Petrochemical products also rose 27.5% in value to $4.0 billion, while volume fell 6.8%. Dubai crude was $110.7 per barrel, up 70.4% from a year earlier, so higher prices appear to have lifted export values for energy-related products.
Taken together, the data suggest that rising export unit prices, and not just higher volumes, contributed heavily to South Korea's export surge. Semiconductors accounted for about 73% of the increase in October exports, and in September, unit prices grew faster than volume for electronics, including semiconductors. However, September's indices cannot directly establish what happened in October, and the contributions of price increases and a shift toward higher-priced products cannot be separated with the current data.
Volume Is Also Growing at a Historic Pace; October Trade Indices Will Be Key
The view that rising unit prices are driving exports faces a counterargument: volume is also growing substantially. According to the Korean outlet Money Today, the Bank of Korea's September export volume index rose 32.1% from a year earlier, the highest growth rate since a 42.0% increase in January 2010. Volume for electronics, including semiconductors, also rose 46.6%, making clear that actual shipment volumes are increasing. Regarding October chip exports, the ministry also explained that capital spending by big tech companies seeking to take the lead in AI continues, sustaining high prices and shipment volumes.
South Korea's export expansion therefore cannot be explained by price increases alone. That said, in September's statistics, electronics export volume rose to 1.47 times the prior-year level while the unit price indicator rose to 2.13 times, so the growth rate was larger for price. For exports overall, volume was 1.32 times and unit price 1.43 times, confirming a similar tendency. Because the unit price here also includes changes in product mix, it is impossible to say how much of the rise comes from higher market prices and how much from a shift toward higher-value products.
The first test of this view will be the Bank of Korea's October trade indices, expected in mid-November. If, for computers, electronic and optical equipment including semiconductors, the year-on-year growth in export volume exceeds the growth in the unit price indicator (the value index divided by the volume index), the view that rising unit prices are leading growth would need to be revised.
Another yardstick is the relationship between future memory prices and chip export value. The ministry's statistics for November and December are normally scheduled for release on December 1 and January 1, 2027, respectively. Even if the fixed transaction price of DDR5 16Gb were to fall for two consecutive months, if chip exports stayed at $50 billion or more per month, it would become more likely that factors other than price, such as higher volumes and changes in product mix, are supporting export value. However, because the price of a specific product alone cannot show volume trends across semiconductor exports as a whole, cross-checking against the trade indices is necessary.
The ministry expects South Korea to reach $1 trillion in annual exports in November. Whether October's export surge was price-driven or reflected a further acceleration in volume will become clear from the trade indices to be published. In particular, whether volume or unit price grew more in semiconductor-related items, which account for the bulk of the export increase, will be a key indicator of what is really behind South Korea's export expansion.