On October 8, 2026, IDC reported that global PC shipments in the third quarter of 2026 (July–September) totaled 62.7 million units, down 20.1% from a year earlier. They also fell 9.1% from the previous quarter, an unusual contraction for a period when shipments normally rise. The main causes were a pullback after manufacturers and distributors stockpiled inventory ahead of price increases, combined with component shortages and soaring component prices. But fewer shipments and the clearing of channel inventory do not necessarily mean lower prices for buyers. A closer look at vendor-level shipments, sales by price tier, and company earnings shows why unit shipments, revenue, and the cost to consumers do not always move in the same direction.
Pre-increase stockpiling cancelled out the usual July–September rise
When a PC maker delivers products to distributors and retailers ahead of demand, those units are counted as the maker's shipments at that point.
IDC's preliminary report covers desktops, notebooks, and workstations. It does not include tablets or x86 servers.
The figures also include both shipments to distributors and shipments to end users. In other words, the 20.1% decline does not mean that purchases by consumers and businesses fell by the same proportion.
IDC cites inventory stockpiling in the first half of 2026 as the main reason for the drop.
PC makers and distributors tried to secure as many products as possible before rising memory prices pushed up the cost of finished PCs. As a result, some PCs that would normally have shipped in the second half were shipped early, in the first half.
But if PCs bought early are still sitting in warehouses or on store shelves, distributors cut new orders and prioritize selling the stock they already hold.
That means new shipments from manufacturers to distributors can fall even while end users keep buying PCs.
Securing products early in anticipation of price hikes can be a rational decision for any single company. But when many companies do the same thing at once, shipments across the whole market swing sharply from quarter to quarter.
The latest decline reflects two forces: consumers holding back because of higher prices, and distributors cutting orders to work down inventory.
However, IDC's preliminary shipment data alone cannot show how much of the decline each factor accounts for.
Global shipments fell by about 15.8 million units, with the top three vendors accounting for 73%
By vendor, the biggest declines came from the three largest players in the global PC market.
HP's shipments fell 30.9% year over year, Dell's fell 25.0%, and Lenovo's fell 22.6%. All three declines exceeded the global decline of 20.1%.
Comparing IDC's vendor-level shipments announced on October 8 with the same period a year earlier gives the following:
| Vendor | Q3 2025 shipments (millions) | Q3 2026 shipments (millions) | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lenovo | 19.3 | 14.9 | −22.6% |
| HP | 15.0 | 10.3 | −30.9% |
| Dell | 10.1 | 7.6 | −25.0% |
| Apple | 6.7 | 5.9 | −11.3% |
| ASUS | 6.0 | 5.5 | −8.6% |
| Others | 21.4 | 18.4 | −14.0% |
| Global total | 78.5 | 62.7 | −20.1% |
Source: IDC's preliminary Q3 2026 vendor shipment data. Year-over-year changes use figures published by IDC. Because shipment volumes are rounded, totals and growth rates calculated from the displayed numbers may not match the published figures.
Global shipments fell from about 78.5 million units a year earlier to about 62.7 million, a drop of roughly 15.8 million units.
Lenovo, HP, and Dell alone accounted for about 11.6 million of that decline.
Dividing the three companies' combined decline by the global decline gives about 73%. This is an estimate based on rounded preliminary figures, but it shows that the drop in global shipments was concentrated among the three largest vendors.
That does not mean the three companies caused 73% of the market's weakness. It simply shows their share of the total decline in shipment volume.
Apple and ASUS, by contrast, saw smaller declines than the global market.
As a result, Apple's global share rose from 8.5% a year earlier to 9.5%, and ASUS's rose from 7.6% to 8.7%.
Both companies still shipped fewer units than a year earlier. Their shares rose because their declines were smaller than the market's during a sharp contraction.
A rising market share does not necessarily mean expanding sales.
It would not be appropriate to conclude from these statistics alone that demand for Macs or ASUS PCs is growing.
Shipments fall but revenue rises as the market shifts toward higher price tiers
Shipments and revenue moving in different directions had already been seen in the US market.
According to a report Omdia released on September 9, US PC shipments in the second quarter of 2026 (April–June) rose 1.0% year over year to 18.8 million units.
Total market revenue, however, rose 13.1%.
The average selling price to distributors also rose 12.0% from a year earlier, exceeding $1,000 for the first time.
This is a US survey for April–June, so it differs in both region and period from IDC's global July–September results. Even so, it shows that shipment numbers alone cannot reveal the true state of the market or the burden on buyers.
Omdia points to soaring prices for components such as memory, as well as manufacturers' prioritization of higher-margin, higher-priced PCs, as reasons for the price increase.
In fact, US shipments of PCs priced under $699 fell 6.5% year over year, while shipments of PCs priced above $1,500 rose 36.8%.
When shipments of inexpensive PCs fall and the share of expensive ones rises, the market's average selling price goes up even if no individual product is marked up.
For that reason, the rise in average selling price cannot be read as a sign that all PCs rose in price by the same proportion.
HP's earnings offer another example of shipments and revenue diverging.
In its fiscal 2026 third-quarter results, announced on August 26, unit sales in the Personal Systems segment, which handles PCs, fell 16% year over year, while revenue rose 18% to $11.8 billion.
HP's fiscal third quarter, however, covers May–July 2026. Because the period differs from the July–September quarter IDC tracked, the figures cannot be compared directly with IDC's 30.9% decline.
Still, it is notable that revenue rose even as unit sales fell.
At the same time, the segment's operating margin declined from 5.4% a year earlier to 4.6%.
In other words, higher revenue did not mean better profitability. It cannot be said that the company absorbed all of the component cost increases, or that it significantly increased profit.
The unit and revenue figures in the earnings report also do not allow a precise split of the revenue gain between price increases and a larger share of higher-priced products in the sales mix.
What matters for consumers is that even when overall market revenue grows, the range of PCs available at the price they want does not necessarily widen.
The drop in low-priced shipments and the shift toward higher price tiers found in Omdia's survey show that higher manufacturer sales do not mean PCs have become more affordable.
Memory makers prioritize servers, and PC makers cut SSD capacity
Even if the PC market remains weak, component prices will not necessarily fall quickly.
One major reason is a shift in how memory makers allocate production capacity.
Memory makers are increasingly prioritizing server products, which are more profitable than PC products.
According to an analysis TrendForce released on September 30, DRAM makers are giving priority to high-performance server products for production capacity that uses advanced manufacturing processes.
As a result, the supply of DRAM for PCs could shrink in 2027. PC makers, wary of future shortages, are continuing to secure components.
Even if PC sales weaken, supply of PC DRAM will not necessarily increase if memory makers redirect capacity to servers.
In other words, finished PCs piling up as channel inventory and being able to buy components cheaply to build new PCs are entirely separate matters.
TrendForce forecasts that in the fourth quarter of 2026 (October–December), contract prices for conventional DRAM will rise 10–15% from the previous quarter, and overall NAND flash contract prices will rise 15–20%.
DRAM is the semiconductor used for PC main memory, while NAND flash is used for storage such as SSDs.
However, these forecasts concern contract prices for components traded between companies. They do not mean finished PCs will rise by the same percentage in stores.
Even so, it is no longer safe to assume that weaker PC demand will automatically bring component prices down.
PC makers are also reducing SSD capacity to cope with higher component costs.
According to TrendForce, PC makers are trying to hold down component costs by cutting SSD capacity in their mainstream models while drawing on the finished goods and channel inventory they secured in the first half of 2026.
As a result, both the volume of SSDs procured for PCs and the average capacity per PC are declining.
Because PC makers are holding back additional orders, NAND flash makers have been more flexible in price negotiations, and price increases for PC SSDs have been kept relatively small.
But even if a PC's price is unchanged, reduced SSD capacity means consumers are not getting the same product.
For example, if a model that once came with a 1TB SSD at a given price is changed to 512GB, its substance has changed even though the price tag has not.
Without checking memory and SSD capacity as well as shipments and prices, it is hard to tell how manufacturers are dealing with rising component costs.
When replacing a PC, look at memory and SSD capacity, not just the discount rate
Jitesh Ubrani, IDC's research manager, has said that because distributors are worried about holding excess inventory, sales and discounts could increase in the short term.
However, he does not expect PC prices to return to last year's levels. With component prices still soaring and supply constrained, the overall view is that prices will stay high.
That said, this is an outlook for the market as a whole and does not mean prices will move the same way in every country or for every product.
The 20.1% drop in global PC shipments does not mean that unit sales in Japan fell by the same proportion or that PC prices there are falling.
When replacing a PC, it is important to check not only the discount rate shown in the advertisement but also how much you would actually pay for a model with the specifications you need.
In particular, comparing products with the same memory and SSD capacity makes it easier to tell whether a product is cheaper because inventory is being cleared or because its components were scaled back to hold down the price.
A large-looking discount does not guarantee that you can buy the same specifications as last year on the same budget.
Even if PC shipments recover, it will still be necessary to determine whether the recovery comes from a rebound in end-user demand or from distributors restocking.
If component procurement prices settle and manufacturers can hold prices down without cutting memory or SSD capacity, the burden of replacing a PC could ease for consumers.
The sharp drop in the global PC market shows that falling shipments do not necessarily lead to falling prices.
Manufacturer shipments, channel inventory, component prices, and product specifications each move for different reasons. To judge whether the PC market has truly recovered, it is necessary to look beyond shipments to how actual purchase prices and product configurations are changing.