You wouldn't be alone in wondering why your next phone costs so much. The Samsung Galaxy S26 launched up to $99 more expensive than its predecessor, and analysts are now predicting a $100–$200 price hike for the iPhone 18 Pro as well. Google's Pixel, which had held the line at $799 for two consecutive generations, was one of the rare exceptions.
But ahead of the Made by Google event on August 12, leaks have surfaced suggesting the Pixel 11 will drop its 128GB model and see a roughly €100 price increase in Europe. The main driver behind this hike isn't Google's confidence or tariffs—it's the memory-buying spree by AI (artificial intelligence) data centers. The bill for the AI boom is starting to land in consumers' hands, and the first line item is showing up on smartphone price tags.
The Only Thing Google Has Confirmed Is "August 12." Here's the Full Picture the Leaks Are Painting
Google's official invitation announced that it will hold a Made by Google event in New York on Wednesday, August 12, 2026, at 6:00 PM ET (3:00 PM PT, 7:00 AM JST on August 13). The invitation reads, "Come celebrate with us in NYC on August 12. It's the night the next generation of Pixel arrives," marking the second consecutive year the event has been held in New York. The only thing Google has officially disclosed is this date and time—nothing about model names or pricing.
Leaks have filled in that gap. In a July 7 article, Ars Technica's Ryan Whitwam reported a four-model lineup—Pixel 11, 11 Pro, 11 Pro XL, and 11 Pro Fold—along with a "Pixel Glow" feature that embeds a notification light on the back of the device. While Google hasn't confirmed these model names, they align with past naming conventions, and render images based on OnLeaks' CAD (design data) have had their external design corroborated by more than ten outlets.
The new Tensor G6 chip at the heart of the device is expected to be manufactured by TSMC, though reports are split on whether it uses a 2nm process or N3P (3nm-class), leaving the matter unresolved for now. There are also standalone leaks pointing to an Arm C1-series 7-core configuration (1+4+2) and the adoption of a new MediaTek modem, the "M90," replacing the Samsung Exynos modem used previously. The Pixel Watch 5 is also expected to debut the same night, with rumors of a shift from Qualcomm Snapdragon to a Google-designed Tensor chip and the addition of a 45mm case option.
On Paper It's €100, But the Real Cost of Dropping the 128GB Tier Varies by Model
The sole source for the pricing leak is billbil-kun, a leaker with a track record on the French deals site Dealabs. According to this leaker, European pricing will be €999 for the Pixel 11, €1,199 for the 11 Pro, €1,399 for the 11 Pro XL, and €1,999 for the 11 Pro Fold—with 256GB as the base configuration across all models. Multiple outlets, including 9to5Google and Android Authority, have reported these figures, but all of them trace back to this single, unverified leak source rather than independently confirmed numbers. Compared to the Pixel 10 generation, this represents a reported increase of roughly €100.
What that "roughly €100" actually means differs sharply depending on the model. For the Pro XL and Pro Fold, the base storage stays at 256GB, so buyers face a straightforward ~€100 increase for the same capacity. For the Pixel 11 and 11 Pro, however, the price hike is bundled with the elimination of the 128GB tier—the entry price rises, but so does the storage, which doubles. Buyers who were already opting for 256GB see little added burden; the ones hit hardest are price-sensitive buyers for whom the cheapest 128GB option was previously sufficient.
The U.S. prices being reported—$899, $1,099, and $1,299—are merely projections derived from converting the European leak. Since European prices include roughly 20% VAT (value-added tax), a simple currency conversion can't reliably predict actual U.S. pricing. Still, cross-referencing past pricing structures reveals the underlying shape of the increase.
The Pixel 9 started at $799 for 128GB and $899 for 256GB—a $100 step between capacity tiers. The Pixel 10 also started at $799, and if that same $100 step held, the 256GB version would have been around $899. If the Pixel 11 does indeed start at $899 for 256GB as predicted, then comparing 256GB to 256GB shows prices essentially unchanged—meaning the entire price increase falls squarely on "the segment that loses the $799 option." Rather than raising the entry price outright, the increase is executed by eliminating the cheap option. That's the anatomy of this "invisible price hike."
How AI Data Centers Are Draining the Memory Supply for Smartphones
Why does AI factor into a smartphone's storage lineup at all? According to reports citing Counterpoint Research, mobile DRAM (the main memory that holds data during processing) prices rose roughly 50% quarter-over-quarter in 2026, while NAND flash memory (used for data storage) prices surged more than 90% in the same period. Semiconductor component prices moving this fast is unusual, and the epicenter lies outside the smartphone market entirely.
Memory manufacturers can't ramp up production capacity in the short term. Samsung and SK hynix are prioritizing their production lines for AI data center products like server DRAM and HBM (high-bandwidth memory), which command far higher unit prices and margins than mobile-grade memory. As data centers and smartphone makers compete for a limited wafer supply, mobile supply tightens and the prices in smartphone makers' procurement contracts spike. Since data center demand simply has more purchasing power, the squeeze lands on end devices.
This dynamic creates clear winners and losers. The winners are the direct beneficiaries of the memory price surge—Samsung's and SK hynix's memory divisions—along with TSMC, rumored to be manufacturing the Tensor G6. The losers are Google, forced to choose between squeezed margins or slower sales, and price-sensitive upgrade buyers who lose access to the cheapest configuration. Ironically, Samsung sits on both sides of this: its smartphone division raised Galaxy S26 prices citing memory costs, while its memory division is profiting from that very same price surge.
At a moment when NAND prices are up more than 90%, Google doubling the standard storage from 128GB to 256GB seems counterintuitive at first glance. But at an entry price of €999, there's enough margin to absorb the added cost of doubled capacity and still come out ahead on the price increase. The framing of "256GB is now the standard" also doubles as justification for the price hike itself. Read this way, it looks like a shrewd pricing strategy that turns rising component costs into an opportunity to boost the product's perceived value.
From Confirmed Galaxy to Predicted iPhone to Leaked Pixel: The Spreading Wave of Price Hikes
The certainty of 2026's price increases varies by brand. The Samsung Galaxy S26 has already launched, with confirmed pricing of $899 for the S26 (about $39 more than its predecessor) and $1,099 for the S26 Plus (about $99 more), with the hikes explicitly attributed to rising DRAM and NAND costs. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, set to launch in fall 2026, remain at the analyst-prediction stage, with $100–$200 hikes forecast due to memory costs. The Pixel 11 sits even earlier in this progression—still at the leak stage.
This three-stage gradient—confirmed Galaxy, predicted iPhone, leaked Pixel—reads less like three separate stories and more like a progress report on the same root cause, memory price inflation, reaching each company's price sheet with a time lag. The certainty differs, but the direction is consistent. If all three major brands' price tags shift within this 12-month window, buyers will have nowhere to hide.
Google has precedent for reversing a price hike after a single generation: after raising the price from $699 (Pixel 8) to $799 (Pixel 9), it held the line at $799 for the Pixel 10. But that earlier increase was a product decision, whereas this time the primary driver is an external factor—component costs—leaving little room for reversal unless memory prices come back down. Whether this becomes a permanent price increase hinges on how long the AI data center investment boom continues.
Can Pixel—Growing Fast but Still Under 1% Share—Withstand the Price Hike Headwind?
Google's smartphone share remains under 1% of the global active device base, but sales grew 14% year-over-year in Q1 2026, and Counterpoint Research just revised its 2026 growth forecast for Tensor-powered device shipments upward from 13.1% to 18.9%. Maintaining $799 pricing while rivals raised theirs had been one of the tailwinds behind that growth. In that sense, this price hike speculation is emerging at nearly the worst possible time for Pixel.
That said, since Galaxy and iPhone are riding the same wave, a Pixel price increase wouldn't dramatically shift its relative price position. What could actually hurt a 1%-share challenger more is the broader lengthening of upgrade cycles as smartphones overall become more expensive. If more buyers delay upgrading, new sales volume—the denominator for growth rate—shrinks across the board. Losing the $799 price point matters less to Pixel's growth trajectory than an overall cooling of the market.
For the past three generations, Google has set Japanese launch prices almost mechanically using the formula "U.S. price × approximately ¥145–147, plus 10% consumption tax." The Pixel 8 was priced at ¥112,900 against its $699 U.S. price (implying a pre-tax rate of ¥146.8), the Pixel 9 and Pixel 10 were both ¥128,900 against $799 (implying ¥146.7), and the Pixel 10 Pro XL was ¥192,900 against $1,199 (implying ¥146.3)—all landing consistently around ¥146. This internal rate held steady even during periods when the market rate swung into the ¥160s, and in MM Research Institute's 22-country survey, Pixel 9's Japanese price ranked as the second-cheapest globally, behind only Taiwan. In other words, the yen's depreciation wasn't passed on to buyers—Google absorbed it itself. Applying this pattern lets us estimate Pixel 11's Japanese pricing with more confidence than a simple currency conversion would allow.
If the ~¥146 rate holds again this time, the predicted $899 Pixel 11 would come to roughly ¥144,000—nearly identical to the current Pixel 10's 256GB price (¥143,900). The predicted $1,099 Pixel 11 Pro would land around ¥176,000, barely above the current Pro's 256GB price of ¥174,900. The segment hit hardest in Japan mirrors the U.S.: buyers who would have bought the base model at the ¥128,900 128GB entry point face an effective increase of about ¥15,000, while the predicted $1,299 Pro XL would come to roughly ¥209,000—a net increase of about ¥16,000 over the current ¥192,900.
However, this estimate could be upended by a change in the exchange rate itself. With the market rate hovering around ¥160–163 to the dollar (as of early July 2026), continuing to use the ¥146 rate means Google is absorbing roughly a 10% currency loss on Japanese sales. Layer the memory cost surge on top of that, and if Google were to revise its rate to ¥162, the base model could jump to roughly ¥160,000—adding another price increase on the same scale as the dollar-denominated hike. For Japanese buyers, the biggest variable isn't where the $100 lands—it's whether this internal exchange rate, held steady for three generations, finally moves.
At 6:00 PM ET on August 12 (7:00 AM JST on August 13), the leaks will be checked against reality. Will the official prices match the leaked figures? Will the 128GB configuration really disappear? And will Google's internal yen rate move for the first time in three generations? Those are the three things worth watching when the answers come in. Whatever the outcome, the pathway for AI boom costs to flow through component markets and into consumers' hands has already opened. The Pixel 11's price tag will be its first toll.