Blackstone has told investors in an AI chip financing that it expects Anthropic to be rated double-B after its stock market listing. The Financial Times (FT) reported the news on October 30, 2026. None of the three major rating agencies, Moody's, S&P and Fitch, has assigned Anthropic a formal rating. According to Anthropic's S-1 filing, its liquidity at the end of June was $131.7 billion, about 21 times its total borrowings of $6.2 billion, but equal to only about 41% of the $321.4 billion in total future payments under lease contracts that have not yet commenced. Double-B is below investment grade, and for U.S. life insurers holding corporate bonds, the required capital factor is about 1.45 to 2.78 times that of BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating. The key issue is less near-term cash flow than the yields Anthropic will need to pay on future borrowing and the range of investors able to lend to it.
Blackstone tells investors to expect a double-B rating after the IPO
According to the FT, Blackstone, a lead investor in "Project North Star," a $63 billion financing to lease Broadcom-made AI chips and networking equipment to Anthropic, told the loan's investors it expects Anthropic to be rated double-B after its listing. Invezz, citing the FT, described the expectation as "double-B or higher," so it is not necessarily a claim that the rating would stay at double-B. Double-B covers three notches, BB+, BB and BB-, all of which fall short of investment grade and are classed as speculative grade. Blackstone had previously said it believed Anthropic would obtain an investment-grade rating before 2027. However, the latest view is Blackstone's own expectation, not a formal determination by Moody's, S&P or Fitch.
Another rating agency has already assessed the company. According to the FT, Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) assigned Anthropic a private issuer rating of BB+ in June 2026. KBRA also rated BB+ the $18 billion of subordinated notes within North Star that are repaid from the lease payments Anthropic makes, and Blackstone's funds took half of that, $9 billion, at a yield above 10%. Invezz and Agora also report that an investment-grade rating could make it easier for investors such as insurers and pension funds to participate.
The line between investment grade and speculative grade falls between BBB- and BB+ at S&P and Fitch, and between Baa3 and Ba1 at Moody's. KBRA's BB+ is just one notch short of investment grade. However, KBRA's private assessment is separate from the ratings the big three may assign after the listing, and it is not settled that Anthropic's credit rating will be double-B.
$131.7 billion in liquidity against $321.4 billion in unstarted lease payments
According to the S-1 that Anthropic made public on October 26, cash and cash equivalents stood at $112.4 billion and short-term investments at $19.3 billion as of June 30, 2026, for total liquidity of $131.7 billion. Total borrowings at that date were $6.2 billion, the principal of convertible notes issued to Amazon. Liquidity is about 21 times total borrowings, but only about 41% of the $321.4 billion in total future payments under lease contracts that have not yet commenced.
However, the $321.4 billion is an undiscounted figure, the total of payments that will arise over many years. It does not represent the funding needed in a single year, and neither proceeds from the listing nor future operating cash flow is included in the comparison. In addition, the convertible notes issued to Amazon are scheduled to be converted into shares, up to Amazon's shareholding cap, just before the listing, with only the portion above the cap remaining as debt. The ratios comparing liquidity with total borrowings and with total unstarted lease payments are therefore simple calculations based on S-1 figures, not credit metrics used by rating agencies.
The unstarted lease contracts mainly relate to AI computing resources and related infrastructure. Total payments under them rose from about $50.2 billion at the end of December 2025 to about $321.4 billion just half a year later. The S-1 notes that for some contracts, performance is conditional on meeting certain requirements. Separately, it discloses that total rent, excluding interest, on equipment leases with Broadcom centered on AI chips known as TPUs is about $161.2 billion. Part of that lease began in 2026, and additional portions are expected to start from 2027. During the contract term, neither party can terminate except in cases of default, and the agreement includes a cross-default clause under which a default on other debt also constitutes a default under this contract.
The effect of a rating on financing terms can also be seen in contracts Anthropic has already signed. In September 2026 the company set up a $15 billion secured revolving credit facility, under which it can borrow and repay repeatedly within the limit. The facility matures on September 4, 2031, and from the date Anthropic obtains an investment-grade rating from at least two of Moody's, S&P and Fitch, it can release the guarantees and collateral at its own discretion. From that date, the facility's fees will also vary with its rating. In other words, whether Anthropic reaches investment grade determines whether it must keep providing guarantees and collateral for the same $15 billion facility.
A one-notch drop from BBB- to BB+ raises U.S. life insurers' required capital factor by about 1.45 times
U.S. life insurers are subject to risk-based capital rules requiring them to hold capital in proportion to the risk of their assets. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) classifies the bonds insurers hold by credit risk and sets factors for calculating the required capital for each category. The categories are in principle determined from rating agencies' assessments, though there are exceptions, such as for the ratings of privately placed bonds. Even for the same amount of bonds, if the credit-risk category falls and the factor rises, an insurer must hold more capital.
The NAIC's pre-tax required capital factor is 2.168% for BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating, compared with 3.151% for BB+, 4.537% for BB and 6.017% for BB-. A drop of just one notch from BBB- to BB+ raises the factor for holding the same amount of bonds by about 1.45 times. It rises by about 2.09 times at BB and about 2.78 times at BB-. These multiples were calculated by dividing each rating's factor by BBB-'s 2.168%.
Higher required capital factors do not mean insurers can no longer hold double-B bonds. Anthropic has also not yet issued public bonds, and it is not settled which NAIC category any debt it issues in the future would fall into. Even so, a bond with a heavier capital burden is less capital-efficient for an insurer at the same yield. Selling double-B bonds to U.S. life insurers may therefore require higher yields to compensate for the additional capital burden.
Differences in yield from differences in credit risk have already appeared in AI chip financings. According to the FT, in "Big Sky," an earlier deal led by Apollo that raised about $35 billion, Broadcom-guaranteed senior notes yielded 5.75%. By contrast, about $4.4 billion of subordinated notes that bear Anthropic's credit risk directly yielded about 8.5%. That works out to a gap of about 2.75 percentage points within the same financing, driven by differences in the credit backing repayment.
Financing for AI infrastructure is also spreading to Japanese life insurers. According to Business Journal, Nippon Life plans to increase its balance of AI infrastructure loans, centered on U.S. data centers, from about ¥1 trillion at the end of March 2026 to ¥2 trillion by fiscal 2035. The company reportedly intends to use project finance rather than equity investment. The NAIC's capital factors are a U.S. regulation and do not apply directly to Nippon Life. Even so, Japanese insurers are also joining as funding providers in the effort to secure AI computing resources through borrowing.
Can Anthropic win investment grade? The big three's decisions and subordinated-note yields are the focus
There is also a good chance that Anthropic obtains an investment-grade rating. Tony Trzcinka, who manages investment-grade bonds at Impax Asset Management, told Bloomberg that Anthropic has secured very ample liquidity, but that its future payment obligations have also reached an unusual scale. He assesses that, given current leverage, the balance sheet is consistent with investment grade. However, he said the final rating will depend on how the agencies judge its future payment schedule, its short operating history and its circular funding relationships with counterparties.
Existing financing structures and additional fundraising capacity are also factors supporting Anthropic's credit. The senior portions of North Star and Big Sky carry residual value guarantees from Broadcom: if selling the leased chips does not fully repay the debt, Broadcom covers the shortfall. The S-1 also describes additional issuance capacity for convertible notes totaling $77 billion: $20 billion for Google, $15 billion for Amazon and $42 billion for Broadcom. If the listing goes ahead, fundraising in the equity market is also expected to add to its cash.
These are important factors in assessing the risk that Anthropic runs short of funds in the near term. But whether it can secure funds and on what terms it can raise them are separate questions. If the senior portions are protected by Broadcom's guarantee, it is the subordinated notes and any bonds Anthropic issues in its own name in the future that test Anthropic's own creditworthiness more directly. According to the FT, North Star's subordinated notes alone total $18 billion. The $77 billion of additional convertible note capacity is based on contracts with specific counterparties, which is different in nature from raising funds in the bond market, where terms are set by ratings and market demand.
There are two conditions to watch in testing this view. The first is whether, after the listing, at least two of Moody's, S&P and Fitch assign an investment-grade rating of BBB- or higher (Baa3 or higher at Moody's). This matches the contract condition under which Anthropic can release the guarantees and collateral on its $15 billion revolving facility. The second is whether, in the next AI chip financing, subordinated notes that bear Anthropic's credit risk directly can be sold at a yield below Big Sky's roughly 8.5%. If the former happens, the double-B expectation would be overturned, and if the latter does, concern about adverse effects on funding terms would ease.
In fact, companies with uncertain future cash flows have obtained investment grade. In June 2026, SpaceX received investment-grade ratings of Baa1 from Moody's, BBB from S&P and BBB+ from Fitch. S&P forecast at the time that the company's cash flow would be negative through 2030.
Whether Blackstone's expectation proves sound will become clear from the formal ratings the big three assign after the listing and the yields on subordinated notes in the next AI chip financing. If Anthropic obtains investment grade from two or more agencies, it can release guarantees and collateral on its existing $15 billion facility and use the investment-grade assessment as a bargaining chip in future fundraising. If it stays at double-B, which investors it can raise money from, and at what yield, will matter for supporting its enormous AI infrastructure investment.