Three investors planning to take part in Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) said the company's valuation needs to be lowered, and one suggested a level close to $1 trillion, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on November 5. If the valuation comes in at $1 trillion, the multiple on annualized latest-quarter revenue would be about 15x, roughly 30% below the roughly 21x at the time of the Series H funding round in May. Anthropic's third-quarter revenue rose 46.7% from the previous quarter, but a $1 trillion valuation would be barely different from the $965 billion post-money valuation set in the Series H. If the IPO is priced at around $1 trillion, the revenue multiple investors assign would fall sharply from the private-company stage, despite the large increase in revenue. Some, however, see the calls for a lower valuation as merely a temporary adjustment tied to the stock market's sharp drop on November 5.
Revenue up 46.7% quarter on quarter, yet calls grow to cut the IPO valuation from $2 trillion
On October 26, 2026, Anthropic publicly filed a Form S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), launching the process to list Class A common stock on Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT," with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters. In an amended S-1 filed on November 2, the company disclosed that third-quarter (July–September) revenue reached $16.956 billion, up 1,127% year on year. Compared with second-quarter revenue of $11.555 billion, that is an increase of 46.7%. This quarter-on-quarter growth rate is our own calculation based on the disclosed figures.
Meanwhile, third-quarter operating income was a loss of $567 million, swinging back into the red from an operating profit of $974 million in the second quarter. Anthropic cited two main factors: $5 billion in compute costs from short-term contracts, and $2 billion in non-cash expenses related to a donation-matching program. As of November 7, the latest amended S-1 on EDGAR still leaves the expected price range and the number of shares offered blank.
While revenue has surged, the IPO valuations cited in media reports have been moving lower. The benchmark is the Series H in May, in which Anthropic raised $65 billion at a post-money valuation of $965 billion.
| Date | Event | Valuation / revenue | Source type |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Series H completion announced | Post-money valuation $965 billion; $65 billion raised | Company announcement |
| Early October | Reported discussions of a valuation of up to $2 trillion | Up to $2 trillion | Bloomberg report |
| October 14 | Reportedly briefed investors on preliminary third-quarter revenue | No specific valuation figure | Bloomberg report |
| October 26 | Public S-1 filed | Share count and price range undetermined | SEC filing |
| November 2 | Amended S-1 filed | Third-quarter revenue $16.956 billion | SEC filing |
| November 2 | Institutional investors reportedly seeking a lower valuation | $1.5–1.6 trillion | WSJ report |
| November 5 | Three investors reportedly said a cut is needed; one suggested a level near $1 trillion | Near $1 trillion | WSJ report |
| November 6 | Valuation being discussed by some prospective investors reported | $1.2–1.3 trillion | Bloomberg report |
In about a month, the valuation cited in reports fell from up to $2 trillion in early October to $1.5–1.6 trillion on November 2, and by November 5 some argued it should be cut to a level near $1 trillion. All of these figures, however, come from anonymous sources; none was announced by Anthropic as a target valuation. For the November 6 report, too, a company spokesperson declined to comment.
The comparison annualizes quarterly revenue, separate from the company's own run-rate metric
The valuation multiple used here is the company valuation divided by four times quarterly revenue. For the Series H, we use second-quarter (April–June) revenue of $11.555 billion, since the quarter includes May 28, when the funding was completed. Multiplying by four gives annualized revenue of $46.22 billion, and dividing the $965 billion post-money valuation by that yields 20.9x. For the IPO valuation, we use the latest third-quarter revenue of $16.956 billion, for annualized revenue of $67.824 billion. Both are simple annualizations that assume the quarterly revenue level continues for a year, not forecasts of future revenue.
Anthropic also uses its own operating metric, "run-rate revenue," which differs from this method. It adds the last 28 days of usage-based revenue multiplied by 13 and monthly subscription revenue multiplied by 12. Multiplying 28 days by 13 gives 364 days, roughly a year. The amended S-1 leaves run-rate revenue as of October 31 blank, and the company also describes in its risk factors that the metric annualizes a short period of sales.
When announcing the Series H in May, Anthropic said run-rate revenue had exceeded $47 billion. Using that $47 billion as the denominator gives a multiple of 20.5x or lower, nearly matching the 20.9x derived from annualized second-quarter revenue. In other words, even with the company's own metric, the broad picture holds: the multiple at the time of the Series H was in the low 20s.
There are two important caveats to this comparison. First, the periods used for funding and revenue do not line up. Second-quarter revenue reflects results through June 30, which were not yet confirmed when the Series H terms were set in May. The 20.9x figure is therefore calculated after the fact and does not represent the multiple investors actually relied on at the time.
Second, the rights attached to the shares differ between the Series H and the IPO. The Series H issued H-1 preferred stock and H-2 non-voting preferred stock, which, according to the amended S-1, were sold at $589.0095 per share in May–June 2026. The IPO, by contrast, offers Class A common stock, whose rights differ from those of preferred stock. The gap in multiples therefore cannot be read directly as the percentage by which share pricing has retreated.
A $1 trillion valuation would be nearly the same as the Series H, with the revenue multiple falling from 21x to 15x
Comparing the Series H valuation with the IPO valuations cited in reports, using the same method, gives the following.
| Valuation | Timing and source | Denominator (annualized quarterly revenue) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| $965 billion (Series H, post-money) | May 28, 2026, company announcement | $46.22 billion (Q2) | 20.9x |
| $1.5–1.6 trillion | November 2, WSJ report | $67.824 billion (Q3) | 22.1–23.6x |
| $1.2–1.3 trillion | November 6, Bloomberg report | $67.824 billion (Q3) | 17.7–19.2x |
| $1 trillion (close to the level WSJ reported) | November 5, WSJ report | $67.824 billion (Q3) | 14.7x |
If Anthropic's IPO valuation came in at $1 trillion, the multiple on third-quarter annualized revenue of $67.824 billion would be 14.7x. Compared with 20.9x at the Series H, that is about 29.5% lower, meaning the multiple would shrink to roughly 70% of its level then. All IPO valuations, however, are based on media reports; the company has not formally presented an expected price range.
The multiple falls because revenue has grown far faster than the valuation. A $1 trillion valuation exceeds the Series H's $965 billion by only 3.6%. Meanwhile, quarterly revenue rose 46.7%, from $11.555 billion in the second quarter to $16.956 billion in the third. When revenue surges while the valuation barely changes, the valuation-to-revenue multiple inevitably declines.
Even at the $1.2–1.3 trillion valuation reported by Bloomberg on November 6, the multiple would be 17.7–19.2x, still short of the 20.9x at the Series H. In other words, if the valuation settles at around $1 trillion, the revenue growth since the Series H would be almost entirely unreflected in the company's valuation. Although Anthropic's business has expanded rapidly, the IPO pricing could apply a lower revenue multiple than it had as a private company.
Converting to yen shows how close the two valuations are. Using the rate of 157.82 yen to the dollar reported by Reuters on November 2, $1 trillion is about 157.8 trillion yen and the Series H's $965 billion is about 152.3 trillion yen, a gap of only about 5.5 trillion yen.
A temporary adjustment after the market plunge? The next S-1 will help settle the valuation
There is also a counterargument that the calls for a lower valuation are merely a temporary reaction to the sharp stock market drop on November 5. That day, the S&P 500 index was reported to have fallen more than 4%. In the WSJ's November 2 report, the valuation sought by institutional investors was $1.5–1.6 trillion, a multiple of 22–24x on annualized third-quarter revenue, on par with or above the Series H. That report also explained that the previous week's sharp drop in tech stocks lay behind the demands for a lower valuation.
The multiple also changes significantly depending on the revenue period used as the denominator. Using trailing 12-month revenue of $35.282 billion rather than annualized latest-quarter revenue, the multiple would be 28.3x even at a $1 trillion valuation. Because those 12 months include the fourth quarter of 2025, when revenue was $2.04 billion, multiples based on trailing results tend to be higher for companies like Anthropic whose revenue is surging. We used annualized quarterly revenue in this analysis to compare the scale of revenue at the Series H and IPO points in the same way.
Even if the market plunge is the cause of the lower valuation, though, the calculation does not change: if the final offering price is set at around $1 trillion, the multiple would be about 30% lower than at the Series H. This analysis does not attribute the lower valuation to Anthropic-specific business risks or concerns about its growth. Conversely, if the valuation is set at $1.5 trillion, the multiple would be 22.1x, maintaining a level similar to the Series H, and the view that the multiple has fallen sharply would no longer hold.
The materials for judging this going forward are the amended S-1 and the final prospectus filed with the SEC. If the next amended S-1 lists an expected price range, the IPO valuation can be calculated concretely. The final offering price and number of shares, decided after gauging investor demand, will be disclosed in the final prospectus known as the "424B4." In the case of SpaceX, which listed in June 2026, its 424B4 stated terms of $135 per share, 555,555,555 shares offered, and total proceeds of about $75 billion.
Anthropic's IPO is also relevant to Japanese investors. Mizuho and MUFG are among its underwriters, and according to Reuters, Anthropic indicated in a filing made in Japan that it plans to offer up to 552.9 billion yen (about $3.5 billion) of shares to Japanese investors. Reuters also reported that in SpaceX's IPO, Japanese investors acquired about $2.2 billion of the $75 billion offered.
The ultimate question is at what valuation Anthropic lists. If the valuation obtained by multiplying the midpoint of the expected price range in the next amended S-1 by the number of shares outstanding is $1.4 trillion or more, the multiple on annualized third-quarter revenue would be about 20.6x or higher, roughly maintaining the Series H level. The view that the multiple has fallen sharply would likewise not hold if the valuation based on the final prospectus's offering price reaches that level.
The WSJ reported on November 2 that the investor roadshow could begin as early as the following week, and on November 5 that the listing target is the week of November 16. Once the next amended S-1 reveals the expected price range, how much the multiple changed between the Series H and the IPO can be judged from the company's formal disclosures rather than from reports based on anonymous sources.