As the global smartphone market shrinks sharply, Apple's shipment share reached 20% for the first time in a second quarter, in Q2 2026. Counterpoint Research and IDC published differing estimates for the overall market decline and Apple's growth rate, but they agree that the iPhone accounted for its largest-ever share in a second quarter. Behind this lies the fact that soaring DRAM and NAND prices weigh more heavily on cheaper devices, tilting both supply and demand toward major manufacturers selling premium products. Does this 20% figure signal Apple's runaway dominance, or is it merely a temporary share shift created by the memory crisis?
Estimates Converge Around 20%, But Growth Rates Diverge Sharply
According to Counterpoint's preliminary estimate published on July 13, global smartphone shipments for April–June 2026 fell 11% year-over-year, marking the lowest level for a second quarter since 2013. Samsung took the top spot with 24%, followed by Apple at 20%, Xiaomi at 12%, OPPO at 11%, and vivo at 8%. Apple's year-over-year growth was 3%, up 3 percentage points from 17% the previous year.
IDC's survey, published the same day, also put Apple's share at 20.1%. However, the unit figures differ considerably. IDC estimates that Apple's shipments grew 15.3%, from 48.4 million units a year earlier to 55.8 million units, while the overall market fell 6.7%, from 297.4 million units to 277.5 million units. This is a substantial gap compared to Counterpoint's figures of 3% growth for Apple and an 11% market decline.
| Research Firm | Global Market YoY | Apple YoY | Apple Shipment Share | Samsung Shipment Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counterpoint Research | -11% | +3% | 20% | 24% |
| IDC | -6.7% | +15.3% | 20.1% | 22.6% |
The difference between the two firms cannot simply be attributed to rounding. Regarding China, too, Counterpoint states that Apple's figures fell below the previous year, while IDC estimates growth of 24.4%. Since each research firm differs in how it captures distribution inventory, aggregates brands, and times its estimate cutoffs, it's impossible to pin down a single cause for the discrepancy from the published figures alone.
Even so, the conclusion that Apple holds roughly 20% and set a new second-quarter record remains solid. However, these are sell-in shipment figures for new devices, not actual consumer sales or global active-device share. Apple itself does not disclose iPhone unit sales. The figure of 55.8 million units is IDC's preliminary estimate, not a confirmed figure from Apple.
The Price and Supply Strategy That Worked in Apple's Favor
What worked in Apple's favor was the combination of demand and pricing for the iPhone 17. At its September 2025 launch, the standard model maintained the $799 US price while doubling the minimum storage to 256GB compared to the previous generation. In the US, Apple offered $200–$700 trade-in credit for iPhone 13 and later models, and carrier promotions offered discounts of up to $1,100 for upgrading to the iPhone 17 Pro. In a phase where device prices tend to rise, maintaining the sticker price alongside installment plans and trade-ins widens the gap at the point of purchase.
Counterpoint views Apple as the only major manufacturer to avoid price increases in Q2. While demand for older-generation iPhones weakened, the firm also notes that Apple prioritized allocating limited components to the current generation. IDC similarly analyzes that Apple and Samsung grew shipments by securing memory early and selling higher-priced tiers where memory accounts for a smaller share of bill-of-materials costs.
Apple's most recent earnings also support the momentum behind the iPhone 17. For the three months ended March 28, 2026, Apple's iPhone revenue was $56.994 billion, up 22% year-over-year. Total company revenue rose 17% to $111.184 billion, and Greater China revenue rose 28% to $20.497 billion. However, this earnings period covers January through March, which does not overlap with the April–June shipment figures discussed here. The revenue Apple disclosed indicates demand momentum, but it is not a figure that directly validates the Q2 research estimates.
Rising Memory Costs Hit Low-Cost Android Devices Directly
The market contraction has not spread evenly across manufacturers. Under IDC's estimates, Samsung grew 8.1% and Apple grew 15.3%, while Xiaomi fell 26.3%, OPPO fell 17.5%, and vivo fell 19.4%. The combined share of the top two manufacturers rose 6.9 percentage points, from 35.8% the previous year to 42.7%. This is because low-cost models, which compete on volume, find it harder to pass rising memory costs on to device prices.
IDC estimates that memory costs have roughly quadrupled compared to a year ago, and now account for more than 65% of the bill of materials in low-cost devices. For devices priced under $200, the burden of rising DRAM and NAND prices—even at the same capacity—weighs heavily relative to the selling price. Manufacturers are forced to either raise prices, reduce storage capacity, or extend the life of older or 4G models. Any of these choices risks either damaging upgrade demand or profitability.
According to Omdia's forecast as of June, average DRAM and NAND prices rose more than 80% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026 alone. Global smartphone shipments for full-year 2026 are expected to fall 12.2% to 1.093 billion units, while market value is expected to rise 6.1%. The average selling price is expected to rise 21%, from $467 in 2025 to $565. Counterpoint forecasts a roughly 14% decline for the full year, and IDC forecasts a 13.9% decline—all three firms pointing toward unit shipments falling by more than 10%.
This is a market in which unit weakness and revenue weakness are no longer synonymous. Apple can keep purchase-time burdens low through trade-ins and installment plans, on top of already higher device prices. Low-cost Android manufacturers risk losing their core customer base if they raise prices, and have less room to absorb rising component costs. The memory crisis has elevated procurement scale and sales financing—alongside product popularity—into competitive factors.
Can Apple Sustain Its 20% Share?
Apple is not immune to rising memory costs either. In its Form 10-Q filed in May, the company stated that it faces supply constraints and rising costs for advanced semiconductors, NAND, and DRAM, and expects the situation to worsen further. It also noted that, depending on how it responds, this could negatively affect product demand, revenue, and gross margin. The pricing strategy that supported Apple's Q2 share gains is, at the same time, a strategy under which Apple itself absorbs costs.
The factors that will determine whether Apple's 20% share persists include the pricing and storage capacity of the next iPhone, trade-in terms, and supply volume. If Apple raises prices while maintaining unit volume, it becomes easier to conclude that the shift toward the premium tier has taken hold. If prices remain unchanged, product gross margin will serve as a gauge of how much of the increased memory cost Apple has been able to absorb. Conversely, if supply of older or low-cost models tightens further, the sales mix within that 20% will skew even further toward higher-priced tiers.
Omdia expects the rise in memory prices to begin settling in the second half of 2027, with price adjustments driven by increased supply capacity arriving around early 2028. Until then, the market requires tracking price and revenue alongside inventory, not just shipment share. Since Apple's next earnings report is also likely to withhold actual iPhone unit figures, iPhone revenue and gross margin for April–June, along with revised figures from various trackers, will be the materials needed to gauge the true substance behind that 20%.