China's integrated circuit (IC) export value reached $177.28 billion in the first half of 2026, up 96.1% year-on-year. However, export volume for the same period was 179.44 billion units, which works out to a year-on-year increase of just 6.9%. The global surge in memory prices is consistent with this divergence, but without a breakdown by China's HS subcategories or figures denominated in renminbi, the exact contribution ratio cannot be confirmed. While China's semiconductor supply capacity continues to expand, the single fact that "export value nearly doubled" cannot be used to infer that production capacity has doubled or that a shift toward advanced products has occurred.
A 96.1% Increase in Value Against Just 6.9% in Volume
According to a South China Morning Post report citing data published by China's General Administration of Customs, IC exports from January to June 2026 totaled 179.44 billion units worth $177.28 billion. The value figure represents a 96.1% increase year-on-year. Meanwhile, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported export volume of 167.8 billion units for the first half of 2025, meaning the volume growth rate comes out to approximately 6.9%.
When the figures for both years are placed on the same scale, the gap becomes even clearer. Working backward from the 96.1% growth rate, the export value for the first half of 2025 would have been approximately $90.40 billion. The average customs unit price—export value divided by unit count—rose 83.4%, from roughly $0.54 to roughly $0.99.
| Metric | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| IC Export Volume | 167.8 billion units | 179.44 billion units | Up approx. 6.9% |
| IC Export Value | Approx. $90.40 billion | $177.28 billion | Up 96.1% |
| Average Customs Unit Price | Approx. $0.54/unit | Approx. $0.99/unit | Up approx. 83.4% |
This average unit price does not represent the selling price of any specific product. It is a composite figure that folds together the proportion of expensive memory, the mix with processors and analog ICs, contract prices, and exchange rates, among other factors. Because the 96.1% figure is a growth rate denominated in dollars, changes in the renminbi exchange rate are also mixed in. Even so, the large gap against the 6.9% volume figure clearly indicates that the 2026 H1 export increase cannot be explained by a rapid expansion in the number of units produced.
Moreover, volume growth actually slowed compared to the previous year. IC export volume grew 20.6% in the first half of 2025, but only about 6.9% in the first half of 2026. Rather than Chinese-made semiconductors sweeping the global market in terms of volume, this was a half-year period in which modest volume growth was compounded by a substantial rise in unit prices.
Memory Prices Surged Simultaneously Worldwide
The leading explanation on the global market side is that production resources became concentrated on memory for AI servers. According to TrendForce, conventional DRAM contract prices in Q1 2026 rose 93-98% quarter-on-quarter. DRAM industry revenue also swelled 81% to $9.7 billion, but bit shipment growth was limited by supply constraints. This phenomenon—revenue spiking while volume barely increases—closely resembles what appears in China's customs statistics.
TrendForce's analysis attributes this to increased wafer consumption for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production squeezing the manufacturing capacity available for conventional DRAM. As major manufacturers redirect advanced processes and equipment toward HBM and server-grade DRAM, the supply of DDR4 and lower-density products used in PCs, smartphones, and industrial equipment also tightens. AI investment has simultaneously driven up demand for cutting-edge HBM while also pushing up prices for existing-generation memory.
South Korea's export statistics corroborate that this trend is not unique to China. According to South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, the country's semiconductor export value rose 162.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. The ministry cited memory demand and price increases driven by AI server investment as the reason. Given that export values surged simultaneously across the world's major memory-supplying countries, China's 96.1% increase must also be evaluated within the context of a global price cycle.
China's IC export volume did grow 6.9% amid this price surge—there are indeed products to supply and customers to buy them. However, treating the export value growth rate as a proxy for China's technological or production-capacity growth rate risks mistaking a price cycle for industrial competitiveness.
Can Technological Level Be Measured by a $0.99 Unit Price?
Customs-defined "ICs" do not constitute a product group aligned by manufacturing node or application. Under the World Customs Organization's (WCO) HS 85.42 category, finished products are divided into four subcategories, with parts placed separately under 8542.90. Because control ICs worth a few cents and high-performance processors worth hundreds of dollars or more coexist within the same broad category, the average of $0.99 does not represent the price of a representative Chinese-made chip.
| HS Subcategory | Main Coverage |
|---|---|
| 8542.31 | Processors, controllers |
| 8542.32 | Memory |
| 8542.33 | Amplifiers |
| 8542.39 | Other electronic integrated circuits |
| 8542.90 | Parts |
The meaning of "unit count" also varies greatly by product. For low-capacity memory or power management ICs, one finished product is counted as one unit, but for high-capacity memory, the number of bits stored within that same "one unit" increases. There are also products with multiple stacked dies or ICs integrating multiple functions. For comparing supply scale, bit shipment volume or wafer input volume would be more suitable. To assess added value or computational performance, die area and per-product revenue figures are also needed.
Caution is also required when making simple comparisons with domestic production statistics. China's National Bureau of Statistics explains that it counts IC production volume as finished products that have been cut and packaged, encompassing everything from logic and memory to sensor circuits. Because customs statistics are based on a different system and product classification, calculating the ratio of export volume to production volume does not determine how much of domestically manufactured product actually went overseas.
Processing trade creates a similar problem. Both transactions in which foreign-made wafers or dies are packaged and tested in China before re-export, and products that are entirely designed, front-end processed, and back-end processed within China, can be cleared through customs as ICs originating from China. Without a breakdown by general trade versus processing trade, country of origin, and by-company figures, it is impossible to know how much of the $177.28 billion in value was actually generated domestically within China.
484.28 Billion Units in Production and $49.3 Billion in Equipment Investment
Even discounting the value statistics, the underlying trend of growing Chinese supply capacity remains real. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's IC production volume in 2025 was 484.28 billion units, up 10.9% year-on-year. Compared to 261.4 billion units in 2020, this represents an 85% increase over five years. Separate from short-term price cycles, the scale of the industry—spanning design, front-end processing, and packaging/testing—has continued to expand.
Capital investment is also substantial. According to SEMI, China's semiconductor manufacturing equipment spending in 2025 totaled $49.3 billion. Although this was down 0.5% from the previous year, it remained near record-high levels, with continued investment in mature nodes and some advanced capacity. Before equipment can contribute to mass production, facility construction and equipment installation must first be completed. Qualification and yield improvement also take time afterward, meaning investment amounts do not directly translate into that year's shipment volumes. Even so, this activity supports supply capacity several years down the line.
The 6.9% increase in export volume in the first half of 2026 can be placed on the trajectory of this long-term expansion. On the other hand, the 96.1% growth in value diverges significantly from the pace of equipment investment and production volume growth. To properly gauge China's competitiveness, it would be inaccurate either to dismiss the surge in value or to treat value alone as an indicator of capability. Volume should be tracked as a measure of supply scale, while average unit price should be tracked separately as a composite of pricing and product mix.
What's Needed Next: HS Subcategories and Trade Type Breakdowns
What should be confirmed in the next set of statistics is a breakdown by HS 85.42 subcategory. How much of the export value increase is attributable to memory under 8542.32, and how did processors/controllers under 8542.31 or other categories under 8542.39 move in terms of volume and unit price? Clarifying this would make it possible to separate the effect of memory price surges from any upgrading in the composition of Chinese-made products.
Figures denominated in renminbi are also needed. Comparing them alongside dollar-denominated figures would allow the exchange rate effect to be stripped out. Furthermore, combining data on general trade versus processing trade, major export destinations, and country of origin would make it easier to distinguish between growth in ICs actually manufactured in China and growth in re-exports that have merely passed through packaging and testing.
On the corporate side, average selling price (ASP) and bit shipment volume serve as useful indicators. If shipment volume and product mix continue to improve even after price increases subside, Chinese companies' earnings foundation will strengthen. Conversely, if volume remains at single-digit growth while memory prices normalize, export value could decelerate without necessarily accompanying any reduction in production.
What can be confirmed from the first-half 2026 statistics is the large divergence between a 96.1% increase in export value and a 6.9% increase in volume. The global memory price surge is the most consistent explanation, but the contribution ratio cannot be confirmed until China releases its own product-level breakdown. The next milestone for China's semiconductor industry will be determined by whether it can continue growing volume even after prices settle, and whether it can increase domestic added value once processing trade is excluded.