On November 4, 2026, market research firm TrendForce reported that the average spot price of mainstream DDR4 chips fell 0.09% in the week through November 3. The price of the benchmark DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s chip slipped from $46.86 on October 28 to $46.82 on November 3, but buyers are holding off on purchases in the expectation of further declines.
Spot prices, however, are formed in short-term cash transactions and differ from contract prices, which manufacturers and customers negotiate. Manufacturers' asking prices are not necessarily contract prices either, and chip prices do not flow straight through to retail prices for finished memory modules or SSDs. To judge whether this small decline says anything about the memory market as a whole, we need to look at both supply and demand.
Why buyers are holding off even as DDR4 prices dip
According to TrendForce's weekly report dated November 4, the average spot price of mainstream DDR4 fell $0.04 from the previous week, a decline of 0.09%. The "1Gx8" designation refers to an 8-gigabit (Gb) memory chip configuration, not a finished 8-gigabyte (GB) memory module.
The reason buyers are holding back is that spot prices remain high. TrendForce says end demand for DDR4 is weak, yet spot prices are still above manufacturers' asking prices. Buyers believe there is room for prices to fall further and are postponing procurement, so trading volume has dropped sharply.
That said, the specific gap or ratio between spot and asking prices, and the actual volume traded, have not been disclosed. The 0.09% decline is also an indicator for a specific DDR4 chip and does not represent price trends across all DDR4 products. A slight dip alone does not mean prices are approaching the level buyers are seeking.
DDR5 buyers prioritize lead times, and DRAM inventories are uneven
DDR5 is moving differently from DDR4. According to TrendForce, some buyers have raised their target prices because of lead-time constraints. However, because rising component costs squeeze profit margins, they remain cautious about paying high prices. Higher target prices do not necessarily mean prices are rising across the DDR5 market or that trading volume is increasing.
To understand these differences in purchasing behavior, it also helps to look at who is holding inventory. In its research brief published October 28, TrendForce reported that DRAM suppliers' inventories are at extremely low levels, while PC makers' inventories are rising. Module makers also differ in their purchasing approach depending on chip grade and application.
| Player / segment | Inventory and procurement situation |
|---|---|
| DRAM suppliers | Inventories extremely low, amid AI demand and additional orders from U.S. cloud service providers |
| PC makers | Inventories rising as PC shipments decline; cutting 2027 purchase volumes |
| Module makers (downgraded chips) | Inventories rising; scaling back purchases |
| Module makers (server-grade chips) | Continuing to procure aggressively |
When suppliers hold little inventory, they have the advantage in price negotiations. PC makers, by contrast, are holding more stock and are restraining additional purchases. Module makers are also buying fewer downgraded chips while actively securing server-grade parts.
In other words, weak PC demand and suppliers' strong pricing power are not necessarily contradictory. Because applications and inventory holders differ, rising PC maker inventories do not justify concluding that the DRAM market as a whole has shifted to oversupply.
Supply cuts underpin PC DRAM contract prices
Contract prices for PC DRAM also cannot be explained by weak demand alone. According to TrendForce's research brief published October 30, PC DRAM contract prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 are still rising, but the pace has slowed from the previous quarter. Buyers are resisting manufacturers' high asking prices, and TrendForce expects many contracts to settle in November at levels involving slight increases. That, however, was an outlook as of October 30 and does not mean November contracts were actually concluded on those terms.
One factor supporting contract prices is the reduction in PC DRAM supply. Notebook shipments are sluggish and customer inventories are growing, yet DRAM makers are shifting production capacity toward servers and tightening supply for PCs. TrendForce therefore expects PC DRAM shortages to continue. If supply is constrained even more than demand is weak, prices do not necessarily fall.
TrendForce also says DRAM suppliers plan to reduce PC DRAM supply in 2027 from the prior year. However, the published research brief gives no specific reduction rate, and it is not certain that supply will be cut as planned. For now, it is premature to treat the slight dip in DDR4 spot prices as a sign that PC DRAM shortages are easing or that contract prices will fall.
NAND declines slow; attention turns to demand after Singles' Day
In the NAND flash market, the pace of price declines is slowing. According to TrendForce's report dated October 28 and its report dated November 4, the average spot asking price of 512Gb TLC NAND wafers fell from $16.883 on October 26 to $16.152 on November 2. That is a drop of $0.731, or about 4.33%, narrower than the previous week's 9.19%. The rate of decline has merely shrunk; prices are still falling.
| Observation date | Average spot asking price | Weekly decline |
|---|---|---|
| October 26, 2026 | $16.883 | 9.19% |
| November 2, 2026 | $16.152 | 4.33% |
Note: The same 512Gb TLC NAND wafer is compared. The 9.19% for October 26 is the decline from the preceding week. The November 2 decline works out to 16.152 ÷ 16.883 − 1 ≈ −4.33%, matching TrendForce's published figure.
These are average spot asking prices for wafers and differ from actual transaction prices or retail prices of finished SSDs. A slower pace of decline alone does not indicate that NAND demand is recovering.
In China, the big Singles' Day shopping festival arrives around November 11. According to TrendForce's report the previous week, some Chinese smartphone brands raised product prices in September but have been cutting prices ahead of the sales event to clear inventory. However, market participants see limited effect from discount-driven promotions, citing inflation, geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and replacement demand that was pulled forward into the first half of the year.
To judge where the memory market is heading, the key questions are whether DRAM spot trading volume recovers and at what level November contract prices settle. For NAND, attention will be on sales during Singles' Day and whether replenishment orders increase once the event ends. Rather than short-term price swings alone, it is necessary to check actual trading volumes together with supply trends.