For anyone building a PC or procuring servers, memory prices keep shifting between one quote and the next. According to figures compiled by South Korea's Trade Statistics Promotion Institute (TRASS), the export unit price for South Korean DRAM (dynamic random access memory) reached $92,183 per kilogram between August 1 and 20, 2026 — a 401.0% increase year-on-year. At the same weight, that figure is equivalent to about 620 grams of 24-karat gold. Gold itself, however, has only risen 2.4-fold over the same three-and-a-half years. The reason commodity memory outpaced even a steadily rising gold price is not speculation. The primary driver is a decision by Samsung and SK hynix about where to allocate production capacity.
What's Inside the $92,183-per-Kilogram Export Price
According to TRASS data, South Korea's DRAM export unit price, excluding modules, stood at $92,183 per kilogram — roughly 127.4 million won — for the period of August 1–20, 2026. That's a 401.0% increase from the same period a year earlier. Export value over the same 20 days reached about $9.8 billion, up 504.8%. The fact that export value growth (504.8%) outpaced unit price growth (401.0%) suggests that shipment volumes rose in addition to prices.
The "excluding modules" qualifier matters for how these numbers should be read. The figures cover exports of packaged chips alone, not memory modules (such as DIMMs) mounted on circuit boards, so the cost of boards or assembly is not included. Still, the statistical category only distinguishes DRAM from modules — it does not guarantee how fully packaged each individual export item is. These figures cannot simply be equated with the weight of bare silicon dies.
TrendForce described this unit price as "equivalent to 620 grams of 24-karat gold" because the domestic Korean price of 620 grams of gold was about 126.6 million won. TRASS's DRAM export unit price in won terms was about 127.4 million won — a gap of just 0.6% between the two.
The statistical period represents an average for August 1–20, while the article does not specify the exact date of the gold price TrendForce referenced. Even so, given that the gap in won terms is under 1%, the approximation that 1 kilogram of DRAM is roughly equivalent to 620 grams of gold holds up reasonably well. It is not a comparison precise enough to call the two values truly equal.
That said, measuring DRAM by weight is inherently a rough approach. Even at the same 1 kilogram, DDR5 and DDR4 carry different prices, and prices vary further by capacity and speed. Still, export statistics track unit prices and volumes on a consistent monthly basis as public data, offering a way to verify market direction independent of research firms' forecasts.
Gold Rose 2.4x, DRAM Rose 12.5x: The Gap That Opened Over 3 Years and 7 Months
Setting the starting point at January 2023 makes the size of the gap clear. That period, when the generative AI boom was just taking off, saw South Korea's DRAM export unit price sitting in low territory. From there to August 2026 — three years and seven months — the unit price rose 12.5-fold. Gold, over the same period, rose 2.4-fold. The difference in growth multiples comes to roughly 5.2 times.
It's worth keeping in mind that gold has indeed risen too. A 2.4-fold increase over three years and seven months is substantial for a precious metal, and represents solid performance as an asset. Yet placed alongside a 12.5-fold rise, it looks modest by comparison. Memory rose even faster than a continuously appreciating gold price. That is simply what happened.
This comparison carries weight because gold functions as a globally recognized store of value. Its demand mixes industrial and investment motives, and its supply is constrained by the time required to develop mines. That kind of asset ended up standing on the same stage as an industrial product that, in theory, factories should be able to ramp up simply by meeting demand. The fact that supply on the industrial side failed to expand accordingly is condensed into this single comparison.
However, the 12.5-fold figure comes from TrendForce, and the article does not specify which week's price the "January 2023" starting point refers to. There's little value in debating decimal-point precision in the multiple. The safer takeaway is simply that DRAM's growth multiple reached roughly five times that of gold.
Why Increasing HBM Output Shrinks General-Purpose DRAM Supply
Samsung and SK hynix raised their HBM3E supply prices for 2026 by about 20%. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is a product that stacks multiple DRAM dies and places them next to a GPU to secure wide bandwidth. Dies destined for HBM compete directly with general-purpose DRAM for the same process technology and the same wafer production capacity. The stacked dies are connected through electrodes running vertically through them and mounted on the same substrate as the GPU. Because this stacking and bonding process lowers yield, completing a single stack requires feeding in more dies than the number ultimately needed.
In other words, even from the same volume of wafer input, the number of bits of general-purpose DRAM available for PCs and smartphones shrinks by however much is diverted to HBM. And that reduction isn't simply proportional to the number of dies diverted — it's further amplified by losses incurred during the stacking process. This competition for production lines occurs as a process-level decision about which product to direct the same manufacturing lines and process capacity toward, and it is settled before market segmentation even comes into play.
Manufacturers' motive for prioritizing HBM is straightforward. There's no comparison between the profit per wafer for a product whose 20% price increase customers accept, versus a general-purpose product beaten down in price negotiations. SK hynix reportedly stated in an earnings call that its 2026 production capacity across HBM, DRAM, and NAND is effectively sold out. As long as buyers are already lined up, there's no incentive to redirect capacity back to general-purpose products.
The strain shows up in contract prices. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices for the third quarter of 2026 to rise 13-18% quarter-on-quarter, and has raised its PC DRAM forecast from an initial 8-13% to 15-20%. Revising the forecast range nearly twofold within a short span reflects how demand-side estimates have failed to keep pace with actual market conditions.
Apple reportedly approached China's CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) about sourcing DRAM for iPhones and Macs sold in China, and requested lower prices. CXMT declined and instead offered prices on par with or higher than Samsung and SK hynix, since its capacity is already filled by domestic demand from Huawei and Xiaomi. Even a company with one of the world's largest procurement capabilities was unable to use a third supplier to drive down prices. This episode shows just how little room buyers have to maneuver.
From NVIDIA's 15-17% to VAIO's Price Revisions
From upstream to downstream, price increases are piling up in layers, each under a different name. The roughly 20% HBM3E price hike has flowed through to a 15-17% increase in NVIDIA's AI server prices, component cost increases that Gartner estimates will push up PC prices by 17% and smartphone prices by 13%, and ultimately to price revisions in VAIO's domestic shipments. There are also significant time lags before upstream increases reach downstream products. Lining up each company's announcements by timing and range reveals the shape of this chain reaction.
| Layer | What Happened | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Memory manufacturers | Samsung and SK hynix raised HBM3E supply prices by about 20% | For 2026 |
| AI servers | NVIDIA notified major customers of a possible 15-17% price increase for Vera Rubin/Blackwell-series products | For shipments in early 2027 |
| PCs and smartphones | Gartner estimates combined DRAM and SSD prices will rise 130%, pushing up PC prices by 17% and smartphone prices by 13% | Through end of 2026 |
| Domestic manufacturer | VAIO revised shipment prices citing global demand growth for memory semiconductors | Shipments from April 23, 2026 |
The 20% upstream increase did not simply translate into a 17% downstream increase. NVIDIA's 15-17% hike is an increase attributed to memory costs, while Gartner's 17% PC figure is a projection worked backward from the premise that combined DRAM and SSD component costs will rise 130%. Though the root cause is the same, the parties bearing the burden and the starting points of the calculations differ. What's common across every layer is that none of them assumes it will fully absorb the increase on its own.
Gartner forecasts that as a result of these price increases, global PC shipments will fall 10.4% and smartphone shipments will fall 8.4% in 2026. This is a forecast that price pass-through is beginning to erode demand itself. Memory shortages are showing up in the numbers first as shrinking unit sales, even before they show up as a supply constraint of components failing to arrive.
The example closest to Japanese readers is likely VAIO. Starting with shipments from April 23, 2026, the company revised shipment prices for both consumer and business PCs, citing global growth in demand for memory semiconductors. Each time domestic manufacturers renew their procurement contracts, they face a choice: pass the increase on to product prices, or keep prices flat by cutting installed memory capacity. If laptops in the same price bracket start shipping with less memory, that is simply another form of a price increase. That said, a single price revision by VAIO does not represent the entire domestic PC market.
Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have all been named in a class-action lawsuit in the United States alleging a price cartel over the surge in DRAM prices. Two competing explanations — a reallocation of production capacity versus coordinated efforts to sustain prices — are now on the table simultaneously. Whether the plaintiffs' claims will be upheld remains to be seen in court, and the case is expected to take years to resolve.
If the Rise Stops, Which Number Will Move First?
TrendForce forecasts that server DRAM contract price increases will slow to 3-8% in the fourth quarter of 2026 — a sharp deceleration compared to the 15-20% increase expected for PC DRAM in the third quarter. But this is a forecast of a slowing rate of increase, not a forecast of falling prices. A phase in which prices remain high but flatten out is likely to come first.
If a reversal does occur, the sequence in which it unfolds is fairly predictable. First, HBM orders will work through their backlog, and Samsung and SK hynix will shift production capacity back toward general-purpose DRAM. Next, the rate of contract price increases will approach zero. Finally, the monthly unit price in export statistics will decline month-on-month. Since the 401% year-on-year figure will be calculated next year against this August's already-elevated price level as its base, the growth rate itself is likely to narrow going forward unless the absolute price surges even further. What's worth tracking is not the year-on-year rate but the point at which the monthly unit price itself peaks.
If that turning point still hasn't appeared by sometime in 2027, Gartner's shipment-decline forecast will move closer to becoming reality rather than being revised downward. Conversely, if capacity diverted to HBM shifts back to general-purpose production and contract price increases stop, PC and smartphone makers will be able to plan their 2027 product lineups without starting from memory-capacity cuts. Two numbers are worth watching: the monthly export unit price that TRASS publishes, and the quarterly contract price forecast range that TrendForce updates.