In January 2026, the DRAM industry's revenue reached $97 billion, up 81% quarter-over-quarter. According to TrendForce data, contract prices for commodity DRAM rose 93-98% over the same period. In the history of semiconductor memory, a price increase of this magnitude within a single quarter is almost unprecedented.
And yet, the spot market in the second week of August has gone quiet. According to a TrendForce weekly report published on August 12, the spot average price for DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s rose only 0.93%, from $42.11 the previous week to $42.50, with trading volume remaining low. A state in which buyers and sellers cannot reach agreement on price has persisted for more than three weeks since late July.
NAND flash shows a similar pattern. The spot price for 512Gb TLC wafers stood at $21.125 as of August 9, up 4.97% week-over-week, yet TrendForce notes that "there is no sign of a recovery in purchasing sentiment." Prices are rising, but goods aren't moving. This seemingly contradictory situation captures the essence of the memory market in mid-2026.
AI Servers Absorb Capacity, Leaving the Consumer Market Behind
Behind this gridlock lies a bifurcation of the memory market.
On the demand side, the accelerating construction of data centers for AI inference has caused procurement demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and high-capacity RDIMMs to explode. TrendForce's July 2026 survey found a growing trend of CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) locking in procurement through long-term agreements (LTAs); Micron reportedly signed five-year contracts with its 16 largest customers, securing an order backlog exceeding $100 billion.
On the supply side, the three major manufacturers—Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—have concentrated their production capacity on HBM and server-grade DRAM. Manufacturing HBM requires roughly three times as many wafers as conventional DRAM, creating a structure in which expanding AI-related demand directly squeezes capacity available for commodity DRAM.
As a result, sufficient supply is not flowing to consumer DRAM for PCs and smartphones, or to NAND flash for USB drives and memory cards. TrendForce forecasts that commodity DRAM contract prices in 3Q26 will rise 13-18% quarter-over-quarter—a sharp deceleration from the 58-63% increase in 2Q26. NAND flash is also expected to slow to a 10-15% increase, a far cry from its previous momentum.
| Metric | 1Q26 Actual | 2Q26 Forecast | 3Q26 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commodity DRAM contract price (QoQ) | +93-98% | +58-63% | +13-18% |
| NAND flash contract price (QoQ) | Near record highs | Continuing to rise | +10-15% |
| DRAM industry revenue | $97 billion (+81% QoQ) | TBD | TBD |
While the rate of increase is slowing, prices remain near all-time highs. TrendForce points out that "consumer market customers have reached the limits of what they can afford to buy," and notes that NAND flash contract prices are "severely compressing margins for downstream module makers."
DDR4's Reversal of Fortune: How a Decade-Old Technology Became a Cash Cow
The DDR4 trend symbolizes the spot market gridlock.
DDR4 is a standard that began mass production in 2014. In the early 2020s, the shift to DDR5 was well underway, and major manufacturers had one after another planned to end DDR4 production (EOL). Samsung stopped taking DDR4 orders in June 2025, Micron issued an EOL notice the same month, and SK hynix had planned to stop accepting orders in October 2025.
However, as production capacity got absorbed by AI demand, the supply-demand balance for DDR4 flipped completely. In Q3 2025, contract prices for PC-bound DDR4 rose 38-43% quarter-over-quarter, and at one point an unusual reversal occurred in which DDR4 spot prices exceeded those of DDR5—something rarely seen under normal circumstances. Samsung and SK hynix reportedly withdrew their EOL plans in September 2025 and extended production into 2026. SK hynix has moved to increase DDR4 output at its older-generation fab in Wuxi, China.
This has been a tailwind for Taiwanese manufacturers. Nanya Technology's revenue for Q1 2026 (January-March) reached $1.55 billion, up 60% quarter-over-quarter, while Winbond's revenue rose 91.4% to approximately $568 million. Taiwanese players are filling the gap in mature-node DRAM left by the retreat of the three major manufacturers.
However, TrendForce's July 2026 report states that "the increased output from Taiwanese manufacturers cannot fully fill the supply gap created by the majors' withdrawal," suggesting the structural shortage of DDR4 is likely to persist for the time being.
The Spot-Contract Divergence Signals a Price Ceiling
Such a wide divergence between spot market and contract market movements is rare even in the history of the memory market.
Normally, spot prices act as a leading indicator for contract prices. When spot prices move, that direction gets reflected in the next round of contract negotiations. But as of summer 2026, the spot market has fallen into a state where neither side moves: buyers refuse to chase prices upward, and sellers refuse to sell at lower prices.
BuySellRam's July market analysis noted that "DDR4 price increases are occurring on extremely low trading volume," pointing out that "in a thin spot market, even a small volume of transactions can significantly move the benchmark price." In other words, the 0.93% and 4.97% increases in spot prices may not necessarily reflect actual market conditions.
TrendForce's NAND flash market report dated June 30, 2026, defines the current situation as a "gridlock phase of high prices and low trading volume," noting that "downstream retail channels are unable to pass on higher costs, and buyers have entered a state of passive resistance."
Who Is Reaping the Fruits of Rising Prices?
Memory manufacturers' financial results directly reflect the benefits of rising prices. Micron's revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 (the quarter ending May 2026) was $41.46 billion, roughly 4.5 times higher than the same period a year earlier. According to TechInsights estimates, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are projected to generate a combined operating profit of roughly $1.7 trillion from their DRAM businesses between 2026 and 2028.
Meanwhile, downstream module makers and PC/smartphone manufacturers have been unable to fully pass on rising procurement costs to product prices, squeezing their margins. TrendForce reports that "module makers are shifting to strict procurement controls in order to mitigate inventory and cash flow risks."
This asymmetry is prolonging the gridlock in the spot market. Buyers cannot afford to buy at any higher price. Sellers can get even higher prices by directing capacity toward AI applications. Between the two, there is no longer a price range at which a transaction can be agreed upon.
Uncertainties Remaining Beyond 3Q26
Three focal points lie ahead.
First, how far will 3Q26 contract price negotiations accommodate buyer resistance? TrendForce forecasts increases of 13-18% for DRAM and 10-15% for NAND, but if demand in the consumer market fails to recover, these forecasts themselves could be revised downward.
Second, when will the DDR4 supply gap close? How much relief increased output from Taiwanese manufacturers and extended production from the three majors can provide will determine the direction of the spot market in the latter half of 2026.
Third, will the expansion of long-term supply agreements shrink the role of the spot market itself? If LTAs become the mainstream, the spot market will become even thinner, diminishing its significance as a venue for price discovery. TechInsights' observation that the memory market is undergoing a structural shift "from a cyclical commodity to a predictable, high-margin business" should be read in this context.
Beneath the surface, where spot prices fluctuate by less than 1% week to week, the profit structure of the memory industry itself is being reconfigured. Along this fault line, where will buyers and sellers next find common ground? Contract negotiations in the latter half of August may provide one answer.