In the second quarter of 2026, the NAND flash market saw a sharp rebound in revenue. According to TrendForce, the combined NAND revenue of the top five companies reached $68.87 billion, up 77% quarter over quarter. Combined with the first quarter's 83.7% increase, the growth over the two quarters amounts to roughly 3.25x. However, this revenue growth was not driven by a surge in shipment volumes. Rather, demand for enterprise SSDs (eSSDs) for AI servers, combined with constrained supply capacity, pushed up ASPs (average selling prices), and the shift in product mix toward eSSDs boosted both revenue and margins. Because increased supply could lower unit prices, and given the outlook for an oversupply to emerge in the second half of 2027, this surge should be read as a price-driven phase.
Roughly 3.25x Over Two Quarters, Micron Rises to Third Place
According to TrendForce estimates, Samsung held the top spot in the second quarter with revenue of $23.06 billion, up 70.7% quarter over quarter. SK hynix Group posted $14.27 billion, up 89.5%, while Micron posted $11.85 billion, up 99.2%, rising to third place. Kioxia posted $10.72 billion, up 79.9%, and SanDisk posted $8.97 billion, up 50.7%. The combined total of $68.87 billion for the five companies grew significantly from just over $38.9 billion in the previous quarter.
In the first quarter, the combined total for the top five companies rose 83.7% quarter over quarter, with Samsung at $13.51 billion, SK hynix Group at $7.53 billion, Kioxia at $5.96 billion, and both Micron and SanDisk at $5.95 billion. Multiplying the first quarter's 1.837x increase by the second quarter's 1.77x increase yields approximately 3.25x over the two quarters. While the change in revenue scale is striking, this figure represents the combined total of the top five companies, not the revenue of the entire market. Even when combined with the estimate that Samsung's second-quarter revenue corresponds to a 29.3% market share, the combined total of the five companies cannot be treated as the market denominator.
Also, TrendForce's figures are estimates from a market research firm. Because official earnings from each company differ in reporting periods, business segmentation, and exchange rate assumptions, they cannot simply be added together with research firm rankings. For example, TrendForce estimates Micron's second-quarter NAND revenue at $11.85 billion, while Micron's official FQ3 NAND revenue was $9.9 billion. These are not the same metric. Estimates that gauge market momentum and official materials that confirm individual companies' earnings structures should be read with their respective roles kept separate.
The Price Effect Behind the 77% Revenue Increase
Roughly speaking, NAND revenue is the product of bit shipment volume and price per bit, layered with the effects of product mix and exchange rates. This is why the 77% increase in the second quarter cannot simply be called a volume increase. TrendForce explains that rising demand for AI servers—particularly eSSDs—combined with supply shortages pushed up ASPs.
Micron's official figures most clearly illustrate the magnitude of the price effect. While FQ3 NAND bit shipments increased only in the mid-single digits quarter over quarter, prices rose in the mid-80% range. Revenue increased 99% quarter over quarter. Even when shipment volume increases only modestly, revenue can surge sharply if unit prices and product mix shift.
SanDisk shows the same trend. FY2026 fourth-quarter revenue was $8.965 billion, with roughly one-third of the revenue growth attributable to volume and two-thirds to price. Data center segment revenue was $2.977 billion, up 103% quarter over quarter, and gross margin rose from 78.4% in the previous quarter to 84.6%. This shows that price gains rippled through both revenue and profitability.
Kioxia reported companywide revenue of ¥1.7671 trillion for FY2026 first quarter, up from ¥1.0029 trillion in the previous quarter. The SSD & Storage segment posted ¥1.1747 trillion, compared to ¥600.3 billion in the previous quarter. The company cites a substantial rise in ASP driven by generative AI data center demand as the main factor. The average exchange rate also shifted from ¥155 to ¥160 per dollar quarter over quarter, meaning exchange rates are also embedded in comparisons of yen-denominated revenue. Here too, price, product mix, and currency effects need to be separated from volume.
Why AI Requires So Much NAND
The demand pathway for AI-related NAND differs from that of HBM. HBM functions as high-bandwidth memory near the compute, whereas NAND serves as large-capacity storage holding data and models. AI infrastructure—handling everything from training datasets to checkpoints during training and data during inference—requires the capacity and performance that eSSDs provide. As demand concentrates, the product mix skews more heavily toward server-oriented products, allowing NAND makers to sell a greater share of higher-value-added products.
SK hynix is advancing the rollout of its 321-layer NAND, and its subsidiary Solidigm supplies high-capacity QLC eSSDs. QLC increases density for read-intensive use cases, improving cost per terabyte. SK hynix cites significant NAND price increases, the higher value-added nature of eSSDs, and the expanding production ratio of 321-layer products, and has outlined plans to shift roughly half of its domestic Korean NAND production capacity to 321-layer by year-end. Samsung also improved profitability through a higher eSSD ratio. However, Samsung's market share has declined to 29.3%, showing that even in a strong-demand phase, rankings and market share can shift depending on how competitors grow.
Increasing layer counts and raising density allows more bits to be extracted from existing wafers. However, this increase does not translate into an immediate supply boost. Process transitions require yield improvements and manufacturing equipment changeovers, followed by customer qualification. For high-capacity eSSDs used in AI applications, product design and validation must also follow after NAND die manufacturing. This time lag is a factor that prolongs price increases during periods of strong demand.
Conditions for a Supply-Demand Reversal in Late 2027
For 2026, TrendForce expects that investment decisions prioritizing DRAM and HBM will limit new NAND capacity, resulting in a supply shortfall of 4-5%. The server segment is projected to account for over 40% of bit demand, with smartphones and notebook PCs together accounting for roughly another 40%. Even if smartphone and PC demand is weak in the third quarter, AI server demand and constraints on new NAND capacity are expected to keep prices supported.
In this structure, even weak consumer device demand could allow eSSD strength to push up overall market revenue and ASPs. However, strong eSSD demand does not mean that all product categories, including consumer-oriented products, will see price increases of the same magnitude. Price movements vary by application, capacity, and contract timing. One should avoid mechanically applying the market-wide surge to individual product pricing.
The conditions for a reversal lie on the supply side. TrendForce forecasts that in the second half of 2027, bit increases from process transitions, softening consumer demand, and selective capacity expansion at existing facilities will push the NAND market toward oversupply. Chinese manufacturers' bit share is also expected to rise to nearly 19% by 2027. While this is a forecast rather than a confirmed outcome, it suggests that the current price-driven revenue growth phase will not last indefinitely.
For price-driven revenue growth to continue, eSSD demand growth must outpace the bit supply increase from process transitions. If an oversupply does emerge in the second half of 2027 as TrendForce forecasts, the unit prices that have supported revenue will begin working in the opposite direction. What should be watched first is whether SK hynix's 321-layer transition reaches roughly 50% of its domestic Korean capacity by year-end, and whether ASPs continue growing faster than each company's bit shipments through the third quarter.