On October 8, 2026, market research firm TrendForce forecast that global laptop shipments in 2027 will decline by a low-single-digit percentage year over year. If DRAM and CPU prices keep rising and manufacturers pass much of the added cost on to retail prices, the decline could widen to a high-single-digit percentage. CPU supply improved in 2026, but manufacturers are temporarily holding down product prices by using components they bought cheaply earlier. That inventory is gradually running down. TrendForce's latest forecast suggests the laptop market's challenge is shifting from whether makers can secure the parts they need to whether consumers can afford PCs that now cost more.
The 2026 Shipment Forecast Improved, but That Doesn't Mean Demand Has Recovered
TrendForce had forecast in July that global laptop shipments in 2026 would fall 13.6% year over year, then revised that in September to a 9.4% decline.
This does not mean demand across the market has genuinely recovered.
Arranging TrendForce's announcements in chronological order shows that an improvement in component supply does not necessarily coincide with a recovery in consumer appetite to buy.
| Announcement date | Forecast year | Forecast change in global laptop shipments (YoY) | Main background / conditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | 2026 | 13.6% decline | Shipments pulled forward into the first half, slowing demand in the second half, higher retail prices |
| September 4, 2026 | 2026 | 9.4% decline | Improved CPU supply, early component purchasing, pulled-forward replacement demand, stable commercial demand |
| October 8, 2026 | 2027 | Base case: low-single-digit decline | If makers can limit price increases by adjusting product mix or absorbing some costs |
| Same as above | 2027 | Could widen to a high-single-digit decline | If component prices keep surging and costs are passed on to retail prices |
Note: All figures are TrendForce forecasts, not actual results. The two 2027 outlooks separate a base case from a worse-case scenario. Specific percentage declines are not given in the public materials.
One main reason the 2026 shipment forecast improved is that CPU supply got better.
According to TrendForce, CPUs became easier to procure from the second quarter of 2026 onward, making it easier for PC makers to secure the parts needed for production.
At the same time, because DRAM and SSD prices keep rising, manufacturers have been pulling forward component purchases ahead of expected price increases.
Consumers, too, reportedly brought forward replacement purchases in anticipation of higher PC prices.
These factors lifted first-half 2026 shipments and narrowed the full-year decline from the initial forecast.
In its September forecast, TrendForce expected 2026 global laptop shipments to split roughly 53 to 47 between the first and second halves.
Demand normally tends to peak in the second half of the year, so shipments concentrated in the first half make 2026 an unusual year.
Behind this are manufacturers' early purchasing and consumers' pulled-forward replacements.
But when future purchases are brought forward, demand in later periods may fall by the same amount.
For example, if someone planned to replace a PC in 2027 but bought it in 2026 to avoid price increases, 2026 sales rise, but there is no need to buy in 2027.
In other words, even if 2026 shipments exceed initial forecasts, that does not necessarily lead to a demand recovery in 2027.
Also, even if shipments from manufacturers to retailers and distributors increase, sales to end consumers have not necessarily risen by the same amount.
A narrower decline in 2026 shipments should be considered separately from a sustained recovery in PC demand.
CPU, DRAM and SSD Now Make Up 68% of Component Costs, While Cheap Stock Dwindles
One of the biggest problems facing laptop makers is the surge in prices of key components.
According to TrendForce, in the third quarter of 2026, CPUs, DRAM and SSDs alone accounted for about 68% of the total component cost of a standard laptop.
This figure is based on a defined reference product.
TrendForce analyzed how rising prices of key components affect manufacturing costs, using as its baseline a standard laptop with a suggested retail price of US$900 in the first quarter of 2025.
At that time, CPUs, DRAM and SSDs made up about 45% of total component cost.
After more than a year of continued price increases for key components, that share rose to 68% in the third quarter of 2026.
It is important to note that the 68% figure is not a share of the laptop's retail price.
It is the share of the total bill of materials (BOM) cost, the combined cost of the parts needed to build the product.
Retail prices reflect not only parts costs but also assembly, logistics, sales expenses, and the profits of manufacturers and distributors.
Therefore, the fact that key components make up 68% of component costs does not mean that $612 of a $900 laptop goes to the CPU, DRAM and SSD.
In its September 4 analysis, TrendForce also estimated the impact of component price increases on retail prices.
It found that to maintain the same gross margin as in the first quarter of 2025 on an equivalent product, the retail price would need to rise about 80% in the third quarter of 2026.
However, this is an estimate based on the condition of maintaining gross margin.
It does not mean that manufacturers have actually raised laptop prices uniformly by 80%.
Taking into account market competition and demand trends, manufacturers may lower their margins or revise product specifications to limit retail price increases.
Also, higher component procurement prices do not immediately show up in store prices.
If manufacturers hold inventory of components or finished products bought cheaply earlier, using that stock can hold down price increases for the time being.
But once the cheaply procured inventory is used up, newly built PCs will reflect today's high component prices.
That would force manufacturers into difficult choices.
Raising retail prices could weaken consumers' willingness to buy. Absorbing costs to limit increases would reduce gross margins.
Another option is to reduce costs by revising specifications, such as cutting memory or SSD capacity.
In fact, such moves have already begun.
In its September 30 survey, TrendForce noted that PC makers are reducing the SSD capacity in standard laptops, limiting both SSD procurement volumes and the average capacity per unit.
For PC DRAM, on the other hand, manufacturers expect shortages could continue into 2027 and are continuing to buy aggressively.
In other words, even for parts used in the same laptop, manufacturers respond differently.
For SSDs, they use secured inventory while cutting the capacity installed in products to hold down costs. For DRAM, they secure the necessary volumes in preparation for future shortages.
For consumers, even if the retail price stays the same, the memory and storage capacity available in a PC at the same budget could shrink.
When replacing a laptop in the future, it will therefore be necessary to check the installed DRAM and SSD capacity as well as the price.
Comparing price tags alone could mean overlooking the specification changes manufacturers are using to limit price increases.
If NAND Supply Improves, Will Laptops Get Cheaper?
TrendForce forecasts that in the 2027 memory market, supply conditions will differ between DRAM and NAND flash.
DRAM supply is expected to remain tight, while supply constraints on NAND flash, used in SSDs, may ease in the second half of 2027.
This difference relates to how AI-related demand affects semiconductor makers' production capacity.
In DRAM, demand for AI-oriented HBM (high-bandwidth memory) and server memory is surging.
HBM stacks multiple DRAM chips and places them close to processors such as GPUs, transferring large volumes of data at high speed.
According to TrendForce's July 30 analysis, manufacturing HBM requires more wafer input than standard DRAM.
As a result, even if the number of wafers processed at DRAM fabs increases, the memory capacity that can be shipped does not necessarily grow by the same proportion.
Also, if memory makers prioritize production of higher-margin HBM and server DRAM, the production capacity allocated to PC DRAM may be limited.
In other words, even when PC demand is weak, capacity shifted to AI products makes it harder for PC DRAM prices to fall.
In fact, in its September 30 forecast, TrendForce expects contract prices for conventional DRAM to rise 10–15% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026.
NAND flash contract prices are also expected to rise 15–20% quarter over quarter.
The pace of price increases may slow, but this is not a forecast of price declines.
These are also forecasts of semiconductor contract prices, and do not mean laptop retail prices will rise by the same percentage.
For NAND flash, however, supply may improve in the second half of 2027.
TrendForce expects the storage capacity that can be produced to increase through advances in technology for stacking more memory cell layers and the start of operations at new fabs.
If weak demand for smartphones, PCs and other devices is added to that, the supply shortage could ease.
However, one reason supply conditions may improve is that consumers are buying fewer smartphones and PCs.
Therefore, an easing of NAND supply and demand is not necessarily the same as a recovery in laptop market demand.
Moreover, views on the NAND supply outlook differ within the industry.
In the "Market outlook" section of its earnings prepared remarks released on September 30, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said the memory and storage market would be tighter in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026.
He forecast that supply constraints will continue in both NAND and DRAM.
In other words, TrendForce, which sees NAND supply constraints easing in the second half of 2027, and Micron, which sees shortages continuing through 2027–2028, do not share the same outlook.
Both are forecasts of the future, and it cannot be concluded now that NAND prices will definitely fall in the second half of 2027.
Increasing semiconductor supply capacity also takes time.
According to the same Micron materials, its "ID1" fab in Idaho is scheduled to produce its first wafers in mid-2027.
Its Tongluo site in Taiwan is also planned to begin shipping products at a certain scale by mid-2027.
Meanwhile, a new NAND fab under construction in Singapore is scheduled to start production in the second half of 2028.
Micron explains that even after new DRAM and NAND fabs begin production, it will take several quarters before supply to the market increases significantly.
In other words, the time when a new fab produces its first wafers differs from the time when enough semiconductors reach the market.
Even if NAND prices fall in the second half of 2027, room for laptop price cuts overall would be limited if CPU and DRAM prices stay high.
To gauge future PC prices, it is necessary to look at the supply conditions and price trends of DRAM and NAND separately, rather than judging by a single figure called "memory prices."
Production Outside China to Decline, With Cost Cutting Taking Priority
Laptop makers are reviewing more than just how they procure components to hold down costs.
The location of production sites could also become an important consideration.
In its October 8 announcement, TrendForce forecast that the share of global laptop production outside China will fall from about 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026, and may drop below 20% in 2027.
This outlook, however, is premised on tariff pressure not becoming stronger than it is now.
Many PC makers have been shifting production to countries and regions outside China in response to geopolitical risk and tariff policies.
But setting up new production sites can bring additional costs in component procurement, logistics, supply chain management and more.
In regions where related component suppliers and logistics networks are not sufficiently developed, costs may be higher than at existing production sites.
With prices of CPUs, DRAM and other components continuing to rise, such additional costs are also a burden manufacturers cannot ignore.
TrendForce therefore believes that, unless policy risks such as tariffs intensify further, manufacturers will place more weight than before on cost, supply chain readiness and production efficiency when choosing production sites.
As a result, some production capacity moved outside China for risk diversification could return to China, it says.
However, this is a conditional forecast by TrendForce and does not mean any specific PC maker has formally decided to move production back to China.
Even if the share of production outside China falls globally, the production location of laptops for Japan will not necessarily change by the same proportion.
If tariff policies or geopolitical conditions change, manufacturers may still prioritize diversifying supply chains over production costs.
Furthermore, CPUs and memory are not the only factors pushing up laptop manufacturing costs.
TrendForce also points to the possibility of price increases and longer lead times for printed circuit boards (PCBs), multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs), power management ICs (PMICs) and other parts, driven by capacity allocation, raw material prices and geopolitical factors.
If the costs of such components stay high, overall PC manufacturing costs will not necessarily improve significantly even if SSD procurement prices fall.
The costs of relocating production and of logistics and procurement in each region also affect final retail prices.
In the 2027 laptop market, how manufacturers respond to these multiple cost factors is likely to influence product prices and sales volumes.
What matters for consumers is not only what percentage a new product's price rises.
They also need to check whether the memory and SSD capacity available in the same price range has changed, and how discounts and promotions change the actual purchase price.
Changes in the actual share of production outside China can also help show whether manufacturers are prioritizing production cost reduction or supply chain diversification.
What TrendForce's latest forecast shows is that the laptop market's problem is shifting from component shortages to rising manufacturing costs and consumer purchasing power.
In 2026, improved CPU supply and pulled-forward replacement demand narrowed the decline in shipments from the initial forecast.
But as inventories of cheaply procured components shrink and higher procurement costs show up in future products, manufacturers will be forced to raise prices, accept lower margins, or lower product specifications.
How far the 2027 laptop market falls will depend heavily on how that burden is shared between manufacturers and consumers.
Securing the necessary parts alone will not lead to a market recovery. A lasting recovery in demand requires that consumers can buy PCs with the performance and capacity they need at prices they can reasonably afford.