An unsent draft letter reportedly prepared by the US State Department could introduce a new participation condition into Pax Silica, the AI supply-chain cooperation framework. Reuters reported on August 14 that the draft, addressed to the 35 countries and territories that signed the AI Opportunity Statement in June, warns that participation is incompatible with overlapping initiatives whose expectations conflict. Neither the published Pax Silica declaration nor the joint statement contains any clause barring participation in China or in competing organizations. The question now at issue is whether a country can join the US-led framework while continuing separate AI diplomacy elsewhere.
However, this is neither a formal warning nor a sanction. The draft is undated, it is unclear when—or whether—it will be sent, and the wording could still be revised before dispatch. The State Department reportedly declined to comment to Reuters on the "leaked internal document." Even so, it is notable that a move testing signatory countries' diplomatic choices has surfaced within Pax Silica, which began as a non-binding cooperation declaration.
Unsent draft letter addressed to 35 signatory countries/territories
According to Reuters, the draft letter characterizes signing the Pax Silica declaration as "a bigger commitment than a membership card," using language including the phrase "to belong to everything is to belong to nothing" to urge careful choices. The specific consequence reported is exclusion from the US-led AI coalition for countries that also join competing frameworks. No tariffs or sanctions are indicated. Nor has it been confirmed whether export license revocations or suspension of existing contracts are involved.
The addressees are reportedly not the signatories of the Pax Silica declaration itself, but the 35 countries and territories that signed the AI Opportunity Statement in June. There were 24 signatories to the declaration issued after the second Pax Silica Summit, so the two groups cannot be treated as having the same number of participants. Japan is a party to both, so if the letter is indeed sent to all 35 AI Opportunity Statement signatories as reported, Japan would be among the recipients. However, since the dispatch itself remains unconfirmed, it is premature to conclude that any new obligation has arisen for Japan.
The example Reuters cited as apparently having prompted the draft letter is Kazakhstan. The country signed both the Pax Silica accession document and the AI Opportunity Statement on June 25, and then signed the founding agreement of the China-led World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO) on July 16. According to Reuters, Kazakhstan is currently the only country confirmed to have joined both frameworks.
An exclusivity condition absent from the public documents
There is a clear gap between the published documents and the draft letter in how participation is treated.
| Document/Framework | Core content in the published document | Relationship to competing frameworks |
|---|---|---|
| Pax Silica Declaration | Access to the AI technology stack among trusted partners, investment security, cooperation on communications networks and data centers | No specific countries named, no exclusive participation conditions |
| AI Opportunity Statement | Joint R&D, exploring joint export of the AI stack, access to computing resources, investment in next-generation data centers | No exclusivity clause |
| Draft letter reported by Reuters | Treats signing Pax Silica as a commitment and denies compatibility with overlapping frameworks | Warns of exclusion from the coalition for countries that also join competing frameworks |
| WAICO | AI cooperation and governance, capacity-building for the Global South | Does not name Pax Silica or the United States |
Pax Silica launched on December 12, 2025. The wording of the declaration is filled with cooperation-oriented verbs such as "affirm," "recognize," "encourage," and "pursue." The AI Opportunity Statement, likewise a one-page joint statement, lists areas of cooperation ranging from innovation-friendly regulation to semiconductors, critical minerals, and data centers. Neither document contains any provision barring dual participation.
If the letter is actually sent as drafted, this premise would change. China is not named explicitly in the draft, and the characterization of incompatibility with WAICO is something Reuters identified from context and through US government sources. Even so, the fact that an exclusivity absent from the public documents has surfaced in an internal draft raises the possibility that signing could shift from an expression of support for a cooperative policy toward a commitment to choosing sides.
Pax Silica spans from minerals to models
The scope Pax Silica covers is not limited to competition over model performance. The US State Department describes it as a flagship initiative linking critical minerals, energy inputs, advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, AI and technology infrastructure, and logistics. AI computing infrastructure requires mineral extraction and refining, electricity, and semiconductors. Deployment of communications networks and data centers is likewise indispensable. Pax Silica is a framework aimed at securing this chain among trusted participating countries.
The joint statement, in addition to joint research, calls for exploring joint export of the AI technology stack. It also aims to encourage cross-border venture investment and investment in next-generation data centers, while expanding access to computing resources. The immediate disadvantage the draft letter suggests is limited to exclusion from the US-led coalition. Whether this would automatically extend to individual export cooperation, investment, grants, or contracts remains unknown.
In June, the US State Department announced, as a concrete Pax Silica initiative, plans to solicit proposals for a support project to build an authentication and provenance-tracking infrastructure for AI supply chains in Panama. The concept involves connecting tracking data on semiconductors and AI infrastructure-related products to existing customs and port systems, speeding up inspection and clearance. This was presented as a plan prior to solicitation and selection, not as an already-deployed infrastructure. Even so, it shows that Pax Silica is moving from shared principles toward logistical implementation.
Kazakhstan's dual participation exposed a weak point
The Kazakh government has explained the two frameworks as distinct cooperation opportunities. In announcing its participation in Pax Silica, it listed joint R&D and critical mineral development as areas of cooperation, along with the development of energy and computing infrastructure, data center construction, and access to computing resources. Meanwhile, WAICO was established as an independent intergovernmental international organization headquartered in Shanghai, following the signing of its founding agreement on July 16.
Twenty-nine countries signed WAICO's founding agreement. The Chinese side frames it around the UN Charter, multilateralism, national sovereignty, and civilizational diversity, and includes narrowing the AI capability gap among its objectives. Both Pax Silica and WAICO speak of AI cooperation, but the former ties a circle of trust to supply chains, while the latter foregrounds openness and capacity-building for the Global South. Participating countries had room to pursue both tracks of diplomacy simultaneously.
The US State Department had welcomed Kazakhstan as a country holding critical mineral reserves needed for advanced technology and semiconductor manufacturing, as well as a logistics hub connecting Europe and Asia. The issue, therefore, cannot be resolved merely as a matter of ideological camps. It directly concerns the choice of supply-chain partners for securing access to minerals, logistics, and AI infrastructure.
What Japan should confirm is the letter's final wording
On June 29, Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that 35 countries and territories, including Japan, had signed the AI Opportunity Statement, affirming shared understanding to promote AI innovation and cooperation. Japan is also a participant in Pax Silica. If the letter is indeed sent as drafted, this would become, for Japan, not an abstract debate over AI governance but a practical matter of confirming which cooperation frameworks are deemed overlapping.
What will determine the outcome is not the strong wording of the draft itself, but rather: to whom and when the final text is delivered; whether the criteria for judging overlapping initiatives are limited to WAICO; and whether exclusion from the coalition ends merely with participation in Pax Silica meetings, or extends to individual investments and grants, as well as export cooperation and access to computing resources. Precisely because Pax Silica is entering a phase of moving toward concrete projects, these boundaries need to be confirmed in writing.