On November 11, 2026, research firm TrendForce forecast that PC DRAM contract prices will rise 13–18% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026 (4Q26). The firm also said that some PC makers holding finished-goods inventory are revising their memory procurement plans for 4Q26 and the first quarter of 2027 (1Q27). In its September 30 announcement, TrendForce had said PC makers were continuing to buy aggressively out of concern about future supply shortages, so the picture has changed in just 42 days. Even so, a double-digit rise in DRAM prices is still forecast. This suggests a shift in market structure: the main factor supporting prices may be moving from aggressive purchasing by PC makers to supply adjustments by memory makers.
PC DRAM purchasing shifted in 42 days
The most notable point in the announcement is the slowdown in notebook demand. According to TrendForce, PC makers feared further memory price increases and pulled forward some component purchasing and production in the first half of 2026. However, higher retail prices have depressed sales in Asia and Europe, and finished-goods inventory is building up at PC makers and in North American distribution channels. Notebook shipments fell 15.8% quarter over quarter in the third quarter of 2026 (3Q26), and could decline by a further single-digit percentage in 4Q26.
This shift in supply and demand is also affecting DRAM purchasing. As prices kept rising, some PC brands ordered more memory than they actually needed. With finished-product shipments falling, DRAM inventory weeks have risen since 3Q26 and are expected to keep building in 4Q26. Some makers have begun negotiating terms with memory makers over their 2027 product mix. Options being considered for 2027 product strategy include raising the share of in-house brand products and holding down component costs by using lower-spec memory chips and CPUs with fewer cores.
TrendForce's earlier announcements make the change in purchasing behavior clearer. On September 4, it reported that component pull-ins by PC makers had pushed first-half shipments above initial expectations. On September 30, it said PC makers were continuing to buy aggressively because they expected DRAM supply to tighten in 2027. By November 11, however, it had disclosed that some makers were revising their 4Q26 and 1Q27 procurement plans. In just 42 days, the policy of some makers shifted from expanding purchases to guard against shortages to curbing them in response to rising inventory.
Statistics from other research firms also confirm weak PC demand. According to Omdia, global PC shipments in 3Q26 fell 21.2% year over year to 58.1 million units, with notebooks down 20.6% to 46.4 million. Counterpoint Research also estimates global PC shipments for the quarter at 57 million units, down 21% year over year. Note that the 15.8% notebook decline cited by TrendForce is a quarter-over-quarter figure, so it is measured on a different basis from the year-over-year figures from Omdia and Counterpoint Research.
Why DRAM prices can rise even as PC demand weakens
DRAM contract prices are set through negotiations over volume and price between memory makers and PC and module makers. In its September 30 announcement, TrendForce explained that throughout 2026, memory makers have supplied agreed quantities to PC and module makers each quarter. When buyers' inventories grow, there is less need to rush additional purchases. Normally, when demand weakens, sellers try to secure sales volume by cutting prices, which puts downward pressure on prices.
In the current PC DRAM market, however, this typical decline is not appearing. According to TrendForce's November 11 announcement, memory makers have drawn up provisional plans to reduce PC DRAM supply in 2027 amid strong AI-related demand. Even as of September 30, it had been pointed out that PC DRAM supply could shrink in 2027 as memory production capacity is redirected toward servers. In other words, even if PC makers' appetite for purchasing weakens, prices may remain hard to push down if supply-side volumes are tightened.
The November 11 announcement also explains that memory makers have relatively little need to boost sales volume to fill PC DRAM production capacity, leaving them some room to moderate the size of price increases. This means sellers are not being forced to cut prices to secure volume. At the same time, maintaining strategic relationships with PC makers is also described as important, so memory makers cannot keep raising prices unilaterally.
Given these conditions, PC DRAM pricing appears to be moving from a phase supported by aggressive buyer purchasing to one shaped by sellers' supply plans. The rate of increase in 4Q26 contract prices will be smaller than in the previous quarter, but a double-digit rise of 13–18% is still forecast. The continued price increase despite slowing PC demand may be because supply adjustments by memory makers are supporting prices.
PC SSDs, by contrast, show the effect of slowing demand more clearly. TrendForce forecasts that client SSD contract prices will rise less than 5% quarter over quarter in 4Q26. PC brands are limiting SSD purchases to the minimum necessary and have also revised down their 1Q27 procurement plans. The curbing of purchases that began earlier with SSDs now appears to be spreading to DRAM, but because DRAM faces planned supply cuts, the effect of falling demand on prices is likely to differ.
These moves could also affect notebooks sold in Japan. In its September 30 announcement, TrendForce noted that PC brands are holding down component costs by reducing SSD capacity in their mainstream products, and on November 11 it also mentioned the option of using lower-spec memory chips. Efforts to scale back memory and storage specifications could spread to products for the Japanese market, but the announcement contains no Japan-specific data, so the actual impact cannot be confirmed.
Is the view that supply plans are supporting prices correct?
There is still not enough evidence to conclude that the factor supporting PC DRAM prices has shifted to the supply side. What TrendForce disclosed on November 11 is only that some PC makers are revising their procurement plans, not that purchasing is shrinking across the industry. If makers that remain wary of 2027 shortages keep buying aggressively, buyer demand will continue to push prices up. In addition, memory makers' 2027 supply cuts are merely provisional plans and have not been finalized.
Forecasts for PC demand also differ among research firms. Omdia predicts that global PC shipments will fall 24% year over year in 4Q26 and 7% for full-year 2027. Counterpoint Research, meanwhile, expects a 27% year-over-year decline in 4Q26 but forecasts that full-year 2027 shipments will be roughly flat with 2026, assuming stabilization at a low level. If actual demand weakens more than expected and memory makers' supply cuts prove limited, DRAM prices may no longer be fully supported.
Still, the supply side appears to be gaining influence because PC makers' inventory build-up has become clear while DRAM contract prices are still forecast to rise by double digits. TrendForce also explains that memory makers have room to adjust supply volumes while moderating the size of price increases. The key question is not whether DRAM prices will keep rising, but whether the main factor driving prices is shifting from buyers' appetite for purchasing to sellers' supply decisions.
The next data point for testing this view is TrendForce's 1Q27 PC DRAM contract price forecast. If the rate of increase narrows from 4Q26's 13–18% and stays positive but below 13%, that would be consistent with the view that supply adjustments are supporting prices despite slowing demand. Conversely, if the lower end of the forecast range is 13% or higher, it would be necessary to consider that buyers' appetite for purchasing may still be strong. And if the increase falls to zero or below, it becomes more likely that supply plans are not adequately supporting prices.
However, the rate of price increase alone cannot show which side controls supply and demand. A narrower increase could occur simply because buyers' appetite weakens, even without supply cuts. In the next quarterly forecast, in addition to the change in prices, it will be necessary to check whether TrendForce cites supply cuts as a factor supporting prices and whether memory makers are actually tightening PC DRAM supply.