On November 3, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that global semiconductor sales in the third quarter of 2026 reached $517.7 billion, up 24.1% from the previous quarter. September sales came to $172.6 billion (three-month moving average), a remarkable 146.8% increase from a year earlier. What stands out is the gap between these results and the full-year 2026 calculation of $1.655 trillion that World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) presented in August. Subtract first-half and third-quarter actuals, and fourth-quarter sales would have to come in about 16% below the third quarter. The full-year figure, which was based on growth rates as of June, may already be diverging from what the market is actually doing.
Quarter-on-quarter growth above 20% for three straight quarters; Japan's presence shrinks
According to the SIA, September global semiconductor sales also rose 7.9% from the previous month. By region, year-over-year growth was 191.7% in the Americas, 141.4% in Asia Pacific/All Other, 124.9% in China, 102.5% in Europe and 73.4% in Japan, meaning every region posted substantial growth. SIA President and CEO Michael Robbins said the global semiconductor market has achieved quarter-on-quarter growth of more than 20% for three consecutive quarters. For the second quarter, the August announcement had reported sales of $403.3 billion, up 35.1% from the previous quarter.
Japan's growth, by contrast, has not kept pace with the global surge. September sales in Japan rose 73.4% year over year, the lowest growth rate among the major regions. However, they rose 8.7% month over month, second only to the Americas' 11.0%, so the Japanese market itself is not stagnating.
In the WSTS Spring 2026 forecast, annual sales in Japan are expected to grow from $44.72 billion in 2025 to $57.05 billion in 2026. Even so, Japan's share of the global market is projected to fall from 5.6% to 3.8%, because the global market is expanding far faster. This quarter's sales exceed the revised second-quarter figure of about $417.2 billion, back-calculated from the 24.1% quarterly increase, by about $100.5 billion. That increase alone is more than double Japan's full-year 2025 sales of $44.72 billion.
Note that the monthly sales figures published by the SIA are three-month moving averages compiled by WSTS. Quarterly sales are roughly equal to three times the moving average for the final month of the quarter: tripling September's $172.6 billion gives $517.8 billion, almost exactly matching the third-quarter figure of $517.7 billion. Because a moving average smooths out the most recent three months of fluctuations, it understates the latest month when sales are surging, so actual single-month sales for September may have been higher than $172.6 billion.
Fitting within $1.655 trillion would require a Q4 decline of about 16%
In its August 6 announcement, WSTS presented a calculation that global semiconductor sales for full-year 2026 would reach $1.655 trillion. That represents growth of about 108% from the previous year and is an upward revision from the $1.5112 trillion shown in the June Spring forecast. However, WSTS explicitly states that this figure is not a new market forecast. It simply replaces the second-quarter portion of the June Spring forecast with actual results, while applying the earlier growth-rate assumptions unchanged to the third quarter and beyond.
Reflecting the third-quarter actuals makes the gap with the full-year calculation clear. Subtracting the first-half sales of $702.0 billion announced by WSTS and third-quarter sales of $517.7 billion from the full-year $1.655 trillion leaves $435.3 billion for the fourth quarter. That is a 15.9% decline from the third quarter.
| Metric | Sales |
|---|---|
| 2026 first-half actual (WSTS, announced in August) | $702.0 billion |
| 2026 third-quarter actual | $517.7 billion |
| Full-year calculation (August) | $1.655 trillion |
| Q4 sales needed to stay within the full-year calculation | $435.3 billion |
| Required quarter-on-quarter change in Q4 | -15.9% |
| Full-year sales if Q4 equals Q3 | $1.7374 trillion |
Fourth-quarter sales of $435.3 billion translate to a December three-month moving average of $145.1 billion. In other words, the figure would have to fall 15.9% from September's $172.6 billion within three months. Yet September monthly sales were still expanding, up 7.9% from the previous month, and there is currently no sign of a sharp slowdown. Even if fourth-quarter sales merely matched the third quarter's $517.7 billion, full-year sales would reach $1.7374 trillion. That is 5.0% above the August calculation and about 15.0% above the June Spring forecast.
Moreover, this estimate does not reflect later upward revisions to first-half sales. The SIA initially announced June sales of $134.5 billion, but revised the figure to $137.9 billion in the July statistics published in September. Working back from the newly announced third-quarter figure of $517.7 billion and the 24.1% quarterly increase, second-quarter sales come to about $417.2 billion rather than the original $403.3 billion.
If this difference of about $13.9 billion were simply added to first-half sales, the fourth-quarter sales needed to stay within the full-year $1.655 trillion would shrink to about $421.4 billion. Converted to a December three-month moving average, that is about $140.5 billion, making the required decline even larger. Applying the same calculation to the June Spring forecast of $1.5112 trillion leaves only $291.5 billion for the fourth quarter, which would require a 43.7% decline from the third quarter.
The biggest uncertainty: a sudden shift in the memory market
That said, there is no guarantee the rapid growth of the semiconductor market will continue into the fourth quarter. The biggest uncertainty is the trend in memory demand and prices, which are driving the current expansion.
The WSTS Spring forecast expected the 2026 memory market to grow about 250% from the previous year, with sales exceeding $800 billion. That would be more than half of the forecast for the entire global semiconductor market, $1.5112 trillion. In first-half actuals as well, memory sales were up 305% year over year, far outpacing logic's 45% growth. A slowdown in AI data-center investment or a pullback in memory prices could cause total semiconductor sales to fall sharply in a short period.
Three-month moving averages also reflect turning points in the market with a lag. Even if actual single-month sales begin to decline, it takes time for the effect to show up fully in the moving average. The fact that growth continues in the statistics through September does not mean a fourth-quarter decline can be ruled out.
However, the issue in this analysis is not whether fourth-quarter sales will rise or fall. It is that the $1.655 trillion figure WSTS presented in August is not a new forecast reflecting actual results through the third quarter. WSTS itself states that it is a calculation carrying over growth rates as of June, and it did not predict a roughly 16% fall in sales in the fourth quarter. If the market were to slow sharply, full-year sales would move closer to this calculation, but that alone would not prove that the assumptions behind the June forecast were sound.
What to watch: the December three-month average and WSTS's next forecast
The key indicator going forward is the trend in the sales figures the SIA releases each month. A benchmark consistent with the August full-year calculation is a December three-month moving average falling to around $145 billion. That is $145.1 billion using the unrevised first-half figures, and about $140.5 billion if the roughly $13.9 billion revision is reflected in the first half. If it fell to that level, full-year 2026 sales would be more likely to land near $1.655 trillion, and the view that they will far exceed the earlier calculation would weaken.
To catch a shift in the market sooner, the monthly release for October will matter. Given how three-month moving averages work, October's moving average can fall below September's $172.6 billion only if October's single-month sales are lower than those of July, which drops out of the calculation. Assuming no revisions to the monthly statistics, if that condition is met, it would mean recent sales have fallen below summer levels, an important clue for judging a market turning point.
For now, the SIA's monthly sales statistics, updated every month, are more useful for tracking changes in the market than a full-year calculation based on June growth rates. What to watch is how much of the rapid growth through the third quarter WSTS builds into its next market forecast, and how it assesses memory demand and fourth-quarter growth.