Taiwanese memory module maker TEAMGROUP has forecast that memory supply will be tightest from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the end of the second quarter of 2027. The prediction came at an investor briefing held on November 2, 2026. According to a report by Taiwanese business outlet Anue (鉅亨網), which covered the briefing, the company also revealed plans to expand its overall production capacity by about 50% by building a new factory.
A prolonged supply shortage and a capacity expansion may seem contradictory at first glance. However, what TEAMGROUP is expanding is the equipment used to assemble memory chips it has procured into products such as modules, and to test them. How many chips upstream manufacturers supply, and which applications those chips are allocated to, are separate questions. Understanding this difference is essential to judging the outlook for PC memory supply.
Shortage to peak through Q2 2027, with normalization taking longer
According to Anue reporter Peng Yuwen, TEAMGROUP expects memory supply to be tightest from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the end of the second quarter of 2027. However, this is an outlook for the period of especially severe supply and demand conditions, and does not mean the shortage will be resolved by the end of Q2 2027.
According to TEAMGROUP's investor presentation (page 19), memory chip makers are giving priority in production capacity to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-performance DDR5, while accelerating production cuts for DDR4. HBM is high-bandwidth memory used in applications such as AI accelerators, and its uses and demand structure differ from those of conventional DDR4. As a result, even if overall memory production capacity grows, supply will not necessarily improve for every product.
The markets hit hardest are industrial and telecommunications equipment, where product supply lifecycles are long. TEAMGROUP says customers in these segments are experiencing DDR4 shortages and price increases. While existing equipment still requires DDR4, reduced production by chip makers means that increased output of newer generations such as DDR5 cannot easily make up the shortfall.
Anue also reports that TEAMGROUP said memory supply for general PCs and smartphones is becoming harder to prioritize, and that some PC makers have lowered the memory specifications of their products. The company also believes the consumer memory module market could reach a turning point in the second half of 2028. However, the end of Q2 2027, when the supply crunch is expected to peak, and the second half of 2028, when the consumer market may turn, are different outlooks, and neither indicates when PC prices will fall.
About 88% of sales are DDR5, but about 60% of inventory is DDR4
TEAMGROUP's business mix shows how it is responding to changing memory demand.
According to page 12 of the briefing materials, the share of total revenue from the enterprise business (B2B) rose from 24.60% in January–September 2025 to 64.60% in the same period of 2026, a 40.00-percentage-point increase in just one year. Meanwhile, the share from the consumer business (B2C) fell from 75.40% to 35.40%, a major shift in the revenue mix.
These figures, however, are shares of sales value, not growth rates in shipment volumes or revenue itself. A larger B2B share does not necessarily mean the entire increase is due to AI server demand, nor can we conclude that consumer product shipments fell by the same proportion.
Even more notable is the difference between DDR4 and DDR5 in the sales and inventory mix. Pages 13–15 of the briefing materials show the following figures:
| Metric | DDR5 | DDR4 |
|---|---|---|
| Share of DRAM sales value, Jan–Sep 2026 | 87.93% | 11.61% |
| Share of DRAM inventory volume, Q3 2026 | 38.51% | 60.09% |
DDR5 accounts for about 88% of sales, while DDR4 makes up a majority of about 60% of inventory volume. This looks lopsided at first glance, but sales and inventory differ in both measurement period and unit. The sales share is based on the value of products sold over a period, while the inventory share is based on quantities at a quarter-end point, so the gap between them cannot be used to calculate shortages or surpluses.
In addition, DRAM accounted for 83.63% of total company revenue in January–September 2026, and Flash for 13.68%. The 87.93% shown for DDR5 in the table is its share of DRAM revenue, not of total company revenue. Likewise, DRAM makes up 70.38% of total inventory volume, and the DDR4/DDR5 ratio shown is a breakdown within that.
This sales and inventory mix suggests that TEAMGROUP treats DDR5 as the core of its earnings while prioritizing preparation for long-term DDR4 supply. Indeed, the company has explained a policy of securing DDR4 inventory to serve industrial and telecommunications equipment customers. However, having a large DDR4 inventory is not the same as being able to sell sufficient volumes for general PCs.
Earnings are also strong. Consolidated revenue for Q3 2026 was NT$10.139 billion, up 33.61% from the previous quarter. Gross margin rose from 42.77% in the prior quarter to 49.27%, and after-tax profit was NT$3.618 billion. These figures suggest TEAMGROUP is benefiting from strong demand and rising prices, but they do not mean consumer memory supply has improved.
New factory to boost capacity by about 50%, but chip supply is a separate issue
In page 8 of its briefing materials, TEAMGROUP revealed plans to build a new factory of about 1,000 ping in New Taipei City, Taiwan. Interior work and equipment installation are to proceed in the first quarter of 2027, with completion and operation scheduled for the second quarter. The factory is expected to raise the company's overall production capacity by about 50%.
The new factory will expand manufacturing and testing equipment and put in place a system to flexibly produce and deliver products to customer requirements. It is also planned to handle ODM and OEM work and the differing testing requirements of each customer. In other words, the aim is to raise throughput in the process of assembling procured memory chips into finished products such as modules, putting them through the necessary testing, and shipping them.
Importantly, the roughly 50% figure does not represent the capacity to manufacture DRAM chips themselves. The wafer production capacity of upstream chip makers does not increase, and how many of the necessary chips TEAMGROUP can procure is a separate matter. The company has not disclosed specific figures for production increases by product, chip procurement volumes from upstream makers, or allocation to PC products. It is therefore not possible to interpret the new factory as increasing PC memory supply by 50%.
Even if the new factory starts operating on schedule, production equipment may not be fully utilized if upstream chip supply is short. And if the chips it secures are prioritized for industrial equipment and enterprise products, the impact on the consumer market will be limited. Securing DDR4 inventory supports stable supply to existing customers, while the new factory raises throughput in manufacturing and testing; each addresses a different constraint.
DDR5 chip prices up about 5.5x: what it means for PC prices and specs
Tight memory supply and demand has already had a major impact on prices. Page 17 of TEAMGROUP's briefing materials includes contract prices for DDR5 16Gb chips, citing TrendForce as the source. The price rose from US$8.70 in October 2025 to US$48.00 in September 2026, a roughly 5.52-fold increase in just 11 months.
However, this is the inter-manufacturer contract price for DDR5 chips alone, and differs from the selling prices of finished memory modules or PCs. Nor does it indicate the price of a 16GB memory module itself, since 16Gb describes chip capacity and equals 2GB when converted to bytes. Actual PC selling prices are affected by the number of chips used, module configuration, distribution costs, and other factors. A 5.5-fold rise in chip contract prices therefore does not necessarily mean PC prices will rise by the same proportion.
Details on the PC makers' memory spec reductions that TEAMGROUP mentioned, including which products and manufacturers are affected, have also not been disclosed. Still, in the PC market going forward, it will be necessary to watch not only prices but also standard memory capacity, available configurations, and delivery times. If installed memory is reduced to hold prices steady, the product's specifications change even if the selling price does not.
TEAMGROUP's new factory is an important step in expanding module manufacturing and testing capacity, but it alone will not resolve the supply shortage. Going forward, it will be necessary to check not only the factory's operating status but also chip procurement volumes from upstream makers, the allocation of supply between DDR4 and DDR5, and shipments of consumer products. In the PC market in particular, how installed capacity and delivery times change, in addition to memory prices, will be a key indicator of whether supply is improving.