A significant increase in TSMC's 2nm process manufacturing costs is raising concerns about price hikes for the iPhone 18 series, expected to launch in 2026, as well as next-generation Android devices using Qualcomm and MediaTek chips. According to multiple sources, consumers may need to pay more than before in exchange for the performance improvements that come with the shift to advanced processes.
The Price of Higher Performance? Cost Increases Brought by the 2nm Process
Semiconductor manufacturing giant TSMC has reportedly recently begun accepting orders for its next-generation 2nm wafers. According to industry estimates, the manufacturing cost of these 2nm wafers is expected to reach a hefty $30,000 (approximately ¥4.5 million) per wafer. This represents a "significant" cost increase compared to the current 3nm process.
The "2nm" figure refers to the semiconductor miniaturization process, with smaller numbers indicating more advanced technology. The A17/A18 chips currently found in the state-of-the-art iPhone 15 Pro series and iPhone 16 series are manufactured using the 3nm process.
Technically, the transition to the 2nm process is expected to deliver approximately 15% performance improvement for the same chip size, offering the benefit of enhanced performance without increased power consumption. For general users, this could translate into noticeably faster app launches, smoother gaming performance, and quicker AI task processing. However, this technological advancement appears to come with a high cost.
Entire iPhone 18 Series May Adopt 2nm Process, Price Increase Seems Inevitable
Apple's iPhone 18 series is expected to feature the A20 chip built on the 2nm process. As noted by prominent leaker 数码闲聊站 on the Chinese social media platform Weibo, the 2026 iPhone models are anticipated to see a "significant price increase."
Initially, renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicted that Apple would limit 2nm chips to only the iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max models, citing the low yield rate (the proportion of chips that can be successfully manufactured) of the 2nm process. However, reports as of March 2025 suggest that TSMC's yield rate has significantly improved, reaching 60-70%. This improvement raises the possibility that the entire iPhone 18 series could adopt the 2nm processor.
Currently, the base storage model of the iPhone 16 Pro starts at around ¥160,000, while the iPhone 15 starts at approximately ¥120,000. With the cost increase from adopting the 2nm process, the iPhone 18 series could see prices rise by an additional ¥10,000-20,000 or so. However, the exact scale of the price increase remains speculative at this point.
Next-Gen Android Devices with Qualcomm and MediaTek Chips Also Face Price Surge, Affecting Galaxy S27 and Others
Qualcomm is also reportedly developing two chipsets for 2026, including the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 3 built on the 2nm process. This chip is expected to be featured in flagship models from major manufacturers, including the Samsung Galaxy S27 series, Oppo Find X10, and Vivo X400 series.
To reduce its dependence on TSMC, Qualcomm is reportedly also considering using Samsung's advanced nodes. This "dual-sourcing" strategy could potentially help curb cost increases.
MediaTek also plans to adopt the 2nm process, with its first chipset expected to be the Dimensity 9600. The company may pursue a strategy of offering relatively lower prices to expand market share, which could impact the mid-range smartphone market.
Android flagship models currently priced around ¥100,000-150,000 will likely see unavoidable price increases in models adopting 2nm chips.
The Semiconductor Industry's Dilemma and Its Impact on Consumers: The Trade-off Between High Performance and High Prices
Chip manufacturers face a dilemma between adopting cutting-edge technology and rising costs. While failing to adopt the latest technology risks falling behind in competition, setting prices too high could dampen consumer purchasing enthusiasm.
For consumers, the distinction between "high-priced models with the latest high-performance chips" and "relatively affordable models with previous-generation chips" will likely become more pronounced. For example, in 2026, we may see a clearer segmentation between premium models adopting the 2nm process and standard models using the 3nm process.
Some analyses suggest that increased demand for 2nm wafers could eventually allow TSMC to leverage economies of scale and lower prices in the future. However, at least in the initial stages, the impact of rising manufacturing costs appears unavoidable.
Given the current trend of longer smartphone replacement cycles, this price increase could further influence consumer purchasing behavior. On the other hand, if new features enabled by the 2nm process—such as enhanced AI capabilities—provide sufficient value to consumers, there will likely be a certain segment willing to accept the price increase.
Sources
- Weibo: 数码闲聊站