On Ukraine's battlefields, hair-thin optical fiber blankets the ground and tangles in tree branches and farmland. These are the remnants of fiber that drones paid out in flight. Along front lines saturated with electronic jamming, conventional radio-controlled FPV drones are giving way to aircraft that carry control signals and video over optical fiber. Because they need no radio link, they are far less vulnerable to electronic warfare equipment.
But this new drone technology is running into a global optical fiber shortage. Construction of the data centers that power generative AI training and inference is expanding rapidly, driving a surge in demand for fiber. The fiber consumed as a disposable item on the battlefield and the fiber that big tech companies use for communications infrastructure differ in product specifications, but they are linked through the same raw-material supply chain.
The effects are starting to show up as soaring procurement prices and component shortages at Ukrainian drone makers. Dependence on Chinese products, the gap in purchasing power compared with Russia, and the difficulty of precision winding weigh heavily on manufacturers operating in wartime. Massive investment in AI infrastructure is now affecting weapons production in Ukraine, far from where the data centers are being built.
データを表で見る
| 総延長 (百万ファイバーkm) | |
|---|---|
| 世界需要（2026予測） | 577 |
| 供給不足（2026予測） | 180 |
| ロシア調達量（2025実績推計） | 60 |
Fiber-Optic FPV Drones Resist Jamming, but Have Limits
The weakness of the FPV drones widely used in Ukraine is their reliance on radio communications. Under powerful jamming from electronic warfare (EW) systems, control signals can drop out and the video feed to the pilot's goggles can break up. As a countermeasure, drones that pay out optical fiber in flight came into wider combat use after Russian forces deployed them in fighting around Kursk in 2024. Ukraine is also racing to develop its own fiber-optic drones.
Oleksiy, an R&D specialist at BlueBird Tech, which makes drones and electronic warfare equipment in Ukraine, says the advantage of fiber-optic drones is that they emit no radio-frequency (RF) signals, unlike conventional radio-controlled aircraft. He spoke on condition that only his first name be used, for security reasons. Because the aircraft and pilot are connected by fiber, there is less risk of the operator's position being located through radio emissions, and conventional jammers cannot cut the link.
| 比較項目 | 従来の無線操縦FPV | 光ファイバー式FPV | 留意点 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 電波妨害への耐性 | 電波妨害によって通信が途絶する恐れがある | 通信自体は妨害電波の影響を受けない | 物理的な断線や障害物への引っかかりに弱い |
| 信号探知リスク | 発信電波から機体や操縦地点を探知される可能性がある | 通信にRFを使用しないため、電波による探知を受けにくい | 光学・音響的な探知を防げるわけではない |
| 操縦・運用 | 操縦技術や訓練方法が広く確立されている | ケーブルの繰り出しが飛行特性に影響する | 無線FPVの経験者にも追加訓練が必要 |
| 部材の調達 | 汎用の無線送受信モジュールを利用 | 光ファイバー、ボビン、メディアコンバータなどが必要 | 原材料の調達と精密巻き取り加工が課題 |
Fiber-optic drones have weaknesses, however. Although they resist jamming, they cannot hide the sound of the aircraft or the airframe itself, and if the fiber breaks in flight, the link is lost. The weight of the cable and the way it pays out also affect flight performance, so they demand different skills from radio-controlled models. According to Oleksiy, even experienced radio FPV pilots cannot master them immediately and need dedicated training. The aircraft are also costly to build, and for these reasons radio-controlled drones remain the mainstream at the front.
BlueBird Tech's public catalog lists the "Zhakh" series of fiber-optic drones built on 10-, 13- and 15-inch frames. Payload, flight time and range vary with airframe size, so users can choose a model to fit the mission. The performance figures in the catalog, however, are the manufacturer's stated values and have not been confirmed by independent third-party testing.
AI Data Center Construction Rush Accelerates the Fiber Shortage
A fiber-optic drone consumes anywhere from several kilometers to several tens of kilometers of fiber on a single flight. The fiber paid out in flight is generally not recovered or reused. If both armies operated tens of thousands of drones a month, consumption would be enormous. The optical fiber market expresses such volumes in "fiber-kilometers." This is not the distance over which cable is laid but the total length of individual fiber strands inside it, so for cables that bundle multiple strands, the figure is larger than the laid distance.
While this military demand grows, investment related to generative AI is surging in the global telecom infrastructure market. According to a market research report published by TrendForce on October 19, 2026, global optical fiber demand in 2026 is expected to reach 577 million fiber-km, with a supply shortfall of 180 million fiber-km. Utilization of manufacturing facilities worldwide has reached a high 92%, and inventories have fallen from four months' worth in 2024 to about one month. Supply capacity has not kept pace with the surge in demand, and the market as a whole is losing spare capacity.
データを表で見る
| 世界需要に占める比率 (%) | |
|---|---|
| 2026年（推計） | 19 |
| 2027年（予測） | 32.5 |
According to TrendForce, data center construction will account for 18–20% of global optical fiber demand in 2026, rising to 30–35% in 2027. Major suppliers' production slots are booked through the first quarter of 2027, and adding preform production lines, which supply the base material for optical fiber, normally takes 18 to 24 months. As a result, it is hard to raise supply sharply in a short time even as demand grows.
The problem is that fiber-optic drones and data centers need similar materials. In drones, the fiber must not suffer signal attenuation from the sharp bending that occurs when it is paid out at high speed from a small spool. That makes single-mode fiber with low bend loss, as defined in the International Telecommunication Union's ITU-T G.657 standard, important. AI data centers, which require dense cabling, also use G.657 fiber because it can be bent easily in confined spaces such as inside racks.
That said, telecom cable for data centers and fiber wound on drone spools are not directly interchangeable. Requirements for coating, outer diameter, tensile strength and quality standards differ by application. The two compete mainly for upstream production capacity, including preform manufacturing. If the global expansion of data center construction tightens raw-material supply, the effects could reach drone fiber as well.
Dependence on China and the Purchasing-Power Gap With Russia
Even when optical fiber is scarce worldwide, the impact is not the same for every buyer. Companies able to place large orders or sign long-term contracts differ from those that buy needed materials in small quantities, both in price negotiating power and in how easily they can secure supply. Ukrainian drone makers face this gap in purchasing power.
According to BlueBird Tech's Oleksiy, the price of fiber the company buys rose roughly 6- to 10-fold between 2025 and 2026. No specific unit prices for comparison have been disclosed, but he says price increases and supply shortages were most severe around March 2026 and have since calmed to some extent. Still, the sourcing of raw materials remains effectively concentrated in China. Even when buying through third-country intermediaries, the trail often leads back to Chinese manufacturers.
Oleksiy also testifies that some Chinese-linked suppliers refused to hand over inventory because the buyer was a Ukrainian company. However, specific company names and contract documents have not been independently verified, so this must be treated as one party's account of individual transactions. Even so, it shows that dependence on Chinese supply can create sourcing risk driven by political circumstances as well as price.
Russia, meanwhile, has a land-connected logistics network with China and procures large quantities of optical fiber. According to The Washington Post, citing Chinese customs data, Russia imported 328,000 miles (about 528,000 km) of optical fiber cable from China in August 2025 alone. By contrast, exports to Ukraine recorded in China's official export statistics came to 72 miles (about 116 km). These are reported figures, not numbers drawn directly from customs data, and it should be noted that there may be transactions via third countries that do not appear in official statistics.
The Russian independent outlet The Insider, citing estimates from the business daily Vedomosti and industry analysts, also reports that Russia purchased about 60 million fiber-km of optical fiber in 2025. That is said to be roughly 10.5% of global production that year. Given that Russia's demand was once said to be under 1% of the global total, it suggests demand expanded sharply. However, it has not been confirmed that all of this volume was used for military purposes.
These figures highlight the difference in procurement environments between Russia and Ukraine. Russia can buy large quantities of materials through direct logistics links with China, while Ukrainian manufacturers sometimes rely on third-country transactions and small-scale purchases. They also face problems peculiar to wartime, such as customs operations halted during air raid alerts and suppliers' refusals to sell. Compared with Russia, which can buy in bulk, and with big tech companies that lock in supply through long-term contracts, small Ukrainian firms are more exposed to price spikes and supply restrictions.
To narrow this gap, Ukraine is moving manufacturing steps in-house. But even if processing can be done domestically, the optical fiber itself must still be bought from abroad, so the China-dependent procurement structure cannot be fully eliminated.
In-House Spool Winding and Yield Improvement Emerge as Challenges
With prices rising for fiber components imported from China and quality of finished products uneven, Ukrainian drone makers are shifting part of their manufacturing to Ukraine. Specifically, rather than importing finished small spools for drones, they buy fiber in bulk on large-diameter spools, in lengths of tens of thousands of meters, and rewind it onto dedicated spools domestically.
According to Oleksiy, the main reason for moving in-house is quality control. Finished spools imported from China sometimes showed manufacturing defects and uneven winding. Optical fiber is a thin glass strand, and small flaws or uneven winding can cause it to break when it pays out in flight. Loss of the link means losing the aircraft and can also affect missions such as reconnaissance or strikes. Fiber quality and winding precision are therefore key factors in drone reliability.
Controlling the winding process domestically allows work conditions and inspection standards to be unified, making quality easier to manage than with imported finished goods. Importing in bulk on large spools could also reduce shipping costs compared with transporting finished spools individually. However, precision winding requires specialized skills, and installing equipment alone does not guarantee stable production.
The main challenges are the following four:
- Shortage of skilled workers: There are no educational institutions that systematically teach precision winding of drone fiber spools, so workers must gain experience on the job.
- Material consumed in training: Until workers master proper winding technique, practice and prototyping consume large amounts of fiber, creating a heavy material cost.
- Difficulty of equipment tuning: Even with automatic winding machines, setting tension and winding pitch requires specialized knowledge. Improper adjustment raises the risk of breakage in flight.
- Burden of quality inspection: Every finished spool must undergo an optical continuity test, and a portion of each production lot must be mounted on actual drones for flight testing.
Particularly important is "yield": how many spools meeting the required quality can be made from purchased fiber. If breakage during manufacturing and winding defects are frequent, the cost savings from going in-house shrink. Conversely, if worker proficiency and equipment tuning reduce defects, more spools can be produced from the same amount of raw material.
Such improvements, however, require capital investment and an inspection system. Larger manufacturers with enough funds and personnel can move in-house more easily, while smaller ones may have to keep buying finished products from large domestic companies or overseas suppliers. In that case, processing costs and distributors' margins are added to the purchase price, which could widen the cost gap.
Also, even if spool manufacturing moves to Ukraine, components other than the fiber remain dependent on foreign sources. Oleksiy points out that media converters, which convert between optical and electrical signals, are among the parts heavily dependent on China. Establishing a domestic winding process is an important step forward, but stabilizing overall component supply will require broadening sources for raw materials and electronic parts.
How Long Will the Fiber Shortage Last?
The global optical fiber shortage may not be resolved in the short term. TrendForce's market forecast suggests tight supply could continue through at least 2028. Increasing preform production capacity takes time, and telecom operators and big tech companies are also moving to lock in future supply through long-term contracts.
One example is the multiyear, multibillion-dollar supply agreement announced on September 8, 2026, by US telecom giant Verizon and optical communications leader Corning. Under the contract, Verizon plans to procure more than 80 million miles (about 128 million km) of high-density optical fiber and connectivity solutions from Corning between 2027 and 2032. Uses include expanding consumer broadband networks as well as building backbone links for AI hyperscalers.
Of course, not all the fiber in this contract will be used for AI, and it does not necessarily compete directly with drone products. How the market impact is assessed also depends on whether the quantity cited in the contract refers to total fiber strand length or cable length. Even so, the fact that a major telecom operator is securing supply years ahead through a massive contract shows that long-term competition for procurement is intensifying.
To judge whether Ukraine's drone industry can establish stable procurement in these conditions, the following five indicators will be important:
- Fiber lead times: Whether the time from order to delivery shortens for bend-resistant G.657 fiber.
- Spot market prices: Whether procurement prices, said to have peaked around March 2026, keep falling toward pre-2025 levels.
- Preform production capacity: Whether production-line additions that take 18 to 24 months progress and translate into actual supply increases.
- Sourcing outside China: Whether fiber and media converters suited to drone use can be secured in the needed quantities and at the needed prices from alternative suppliers in Europe, the US and Asia.
- Domestic manufacturing yield: Whether defect rates in Ukraine's winding process fall and spools that maintain high reliability in flight tests can be produced consistently.
Fiber-optic drones are spreading as an effective countermeasure to electronic warfare jamming. But the fiber that underpins their production is becoming harder to obtain because of expanding AI data center construction and global investment in telecom infrastructure. For Ukraine's drone industry, the challenge ahead is not only improving aircraft performance. Whether it can stabilize the procurement of raw materials from abroad and build a system for mass-producing high-quality components at home will determine whether fiber-optic drones can keep being supplied.