In Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen, China, used 16GB DDR4 memory has fallen more than 30% from its early-2026 high. The surge in used-memory prices finally shows signs of easing. But in that same market, new DDR4 prices rose again between June and July. And upstream, DRAM contract prices—while their rate of increase is shrinking rapidly—are still expected to climb 13-18% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 (July-September).
The 450 yuan price tag on used modules is indeed evidence that some products have begun descending from historic highs. But it is not evidence that global memory supply and demand have loosened. When you separate used goods, new retail goods, and contract prices set between semiconductor makers and major buyers, what's happening on the ground isn't a broad-based decline—it's a phase where price movements are starting to diverge, with markets where demand can no longer bear high prices moving first.
Used 16GB DDR4: 450 Yuan, Within Observed Range
According to a July 18 report by MyDrivers on Huaqiangbei market prices, used 16GB DDR4 was going for about 450 yuan. That's more than 30% below the peak of over 700 yuan seen in early 2026. Even so, it's still 5-6 times the price from the same period last year—far from a return to normal pricing. Wary of sudden price swings, local vendors reportedly avoid holding large inventories.
On-the-ground reporting from Shanghai Securities News, published July 20, also put used 16GB DDR4 at around 450 yuan, matching the current figure. New 16GB DDR4, as surveyed by the same outlet, was about 600 yuan—a small gap from the used price. Local vendors even noted that "few people specifically seek out used goods," suggesting there isn't a rush of demand chasing bargains in the used market.
Broadening the scope risks misreading the market. The 450 yuan figure is a reported price for used 16GB DDR4 sold in Huaqiangbei—it is not a price index that accounts for brand, clock speed, timings, or condition. New DDR4, DDR5, physical memory-chip trading, and PC makers' procurement prices all move according to different inventories and distribution channels. What's confirmed so far is only that this localized used-goods price has fallen from an unusual high.
New Goods: Higher Than June, Lower Than the Peak
The price movement of new 16GB DDR4 surveyed by Shanghai Securities News can't be explained by a simple downward trend. After hitting 800-900 yuan in March, it fell to 400-500 yuan by June, then climbed back to about 600 yuan in July. It's currently about 30% below March's peak, yet it has risen over the past month. Four vendors confirmed the July rebound, which is occurring simultaneously with the decline in used goods moving through a different distribution channel.
SSDs show the same kind of pullback within a high-price range. 1TB SSDs in Huaqiangbei fell from about 1,100 yuan in March to the current 800-900 yuan, but that's still roughly double the approximately 400 yuan seen before October 2025. Looking only at the decline from the peak might suggest prices have become more reasonable, but there's still a wide gap from the prices last year's buyers remember paying.
Moreover, the burden varies further by product. According to on-the-ground reporting by Cailian Press (STCN) on July 19, 16GB DDR5 rose from 450 to 1,800 yuan, and 32GB DDR5 rose from 900 to 3,800 yuan. Mainstream 1TB SSDs also climbed from about 410 yuan last year to 950-1,000 yuan. The outlet reported that PCs have seen the largest price increases, and a growing number of consumers are holding off on purchases.
At retail, fewer buyers are willing to accept high prices, while vendors also want to avoid inventory losses from price declines. According to Shanghai Securities News's reporting, a "buy fast, sell fast" (快进快出) approach—rushing to procure and sell based on orders—has spread, and some vendors sold off previously stocked inventory during July's rebound. In such thin-inventory markets, prices can swing easily even with small shipments or rushed sales. It's more accurate to view the 450 yuan figure for used goods as reflecting weak demand and wariness of inventory risk, rather than a resolution of supply shortages.
Contract Prices: Slowing to a 13-18% Rise
Upstream, prices haven't yet turned downward. According to TrendForce research, contract prices for commodity DRAM rose 93-98% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026 (January-March). They're forecast to rise another 58-63% in Q2 (April-June), with the Q3 (July-September) outlook at a 13-18% increase. While the rate of increase is shrinking sharply each quarter, the price level is still calculated to keep climbing.
Contract prices refer to the procurement prices negotiated between semiconductor makers and major buyers such as PC manufacturers. They aren't directly linked to used modules in Huaqiangbei. Still, they eventually influence the prices of new PCs and replacement modules, with a time lag, through the cost of memory that PC makers will procure going forward. It's not a contradiction for used goods to fall first while contract prices keep rising.
What's sustaining the price increases is memory makers prioritizing production capacity for AI servers. TrendForce explains that while makers are fulfilling the volumes agreed upon for 2026 with PC makers and module companies, the shift toward server applications is cutting into the supply of DRAM for PCs. Even with weak PC demand, supply is also being constrained, making it difficult for contract prices to quickly turn downward.
Meanwhile, buyers' capacity to absorb costs has hit its limit. Although PC makers are replenishing inventory, TrendForce predicts that rising component costs will spill over into retail laptop prices and push down annual shipments. Because a consumer market that's cutting back on purchasing coexists with an AI server market that's absorbing supply, prices don't reverse all at once—they vary by application and distribution channel.
Three Numbers to Judge a Genuine Price Decline
The 450 yuan figure for used 16GB DDR4 alone isn't enough to conclude that the memory price surge is over. First, we need to confirm whether new 16GB DDR4 falls again from July's roughly 600 yuan and continues to stay below June's 400-500 yuan range. Second, we need to see whether declines spread across DDR5 and SSDs, across multiple capacities, brands, and regions. If the decline is limited to used goods or clearance sales, it doesn't go beyond the scope of inventory disposal.
Upstream, the key turning point will be whether commodity DRAM contract prices—forecast to rise 13-18% in Q3—flatten out in the following quarter. If PC-bound supply doesn't increase while only consumer demand weakens, a drop in retail sales volume doesn't necessarily mean procurement costs will fall.
In Huaqiangbei, the practice of avoiding heavy inventory and selling off stock quickly in response to price swings has already spread. This is a change that reflects an awareness that prices may have hit a ceiling. However, it is not a number indicating a bottom. Will new 16GB DDR4 falling below June's level spread across multiple products and regions? Will the rise in commodity DRAM contract prices stop? To link the decline in the used-goods market to an overall drop in memory prices, these are the things that need to be confirmed, one after another, going forward.