On October 16, 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology released a proposed revision that would add a total of 40 technologies in AI, biopharmaceuticals and solar power to the country's catalogue of technologies prohibited or restricted from export. The public comment period runs until November 15, but pre-export registration for the covered technologies began on the date of the announcement. The release combines a formal expansion of the rules, still under consultation, with an interim measure that is already in motion.
The proposal does not, however, uniformly halt overseas use of Chinese AI. Deploying a restricted technology locally overseas is treated differently from accessing a model through an API. In solar power, too, the proposal separates selling products from transferring the technology used to make them. Across all three fields, the key question is what exactly is being handed over across the border.
14 prohibited, 26 restricted, with registration already under way
The proposal covers 23 AI technologies, 5 biopharmaceutical technologies and 12 solar technologies. According to the Ministry of Commerce, 14 of the 40 would be prohibited from export and 26 restricted. In AI, the list includes large AI models and AI agents, as well as computing clusters that link multiple computing devices, and information-processing technologies.
Examples in the prohibited category include technology for AI-based generation and mutation of malicious code. Technology that uses AI to discover software vulnerabilities, by contrast, falls under the proposed restrictions. In solar power, production technology for perovskite and tandem solar cell modules is cited as an example of a prohibited item. This is a selective approach rather than a blanket ban on entire fields.
What has actually been decided so far is the start of interim registration under Announcement No. 48. For the proposed additions to the prohibited and restricted lists, authorities are seeking comment on the scope of technologies, the criteria and facilitation measures, before moving to a formal revision. November 15 is the deadline for submitting comments, not the date the rules take effect.
Models below 2 trillion parameters can still be covered
The restricted AI items include the model "weights" themselves, which are used to run a model externally. Weights are the internal numerical values adjusted through training. Item 266504X of the draft annex to the announcement proposes restricting the weights, key checkpoints and underlying source code of large models that meet any one of the following conditions. It also covers architecture design, as well as technologies for optimizing training and accelerating inference.
| Criterion | Condition in the draft |
|---|---|
| Compute | 10^26 or more floating-point operations |
| Parameters | 20,000 hundred million, i.e., 2 trillion or more |
| Capability | At the time of export, ranks in the global top 10 on a covered metric in public evaluations |
A model does not need to meet all three. Even if it falls below the compute and parameter thresholds, it can be covered if it meets the global-ranking condition. The metrics used for ranking are not limited to overall performance: they include capability on specific tasks and global call volume, and the draft also mentions safety performance and training efficiency. The design does not allow export eligibility to be decided by model size alone.
Rankings are to be judged at the time of the export activity, using public evaluations from major domestic and international evaluation bodies and large industry platforms. However, the provision does not name specific institutions or rankings. It is not possible to determine from a model's name alone whether a particular Chinese model would be covered.
Separate controls apply based on the nature of the data. Models trained on what Chinese law defines as "core data" and used to provide services are included in the proposed export ban. Similar models that use "important data" fall under the proposed restrictions. The reference is to legal data categories under Chinese law, not to whether data is sensitive in a general sense.
The important-data provision also includes exceptions. These include minimal use of 0.1% or less, along with conditions such as not substantially improving R&D capability in the core technologies of the field, or having safeguards in place so that important data is not reproduced in outputs. Important data that can be lawfully obtained from public sources is also excluded. However, these are exceptions to the provision on models that use important data; they are not explained as exempting a model from separate conditions based on scale or global ranking. The note also does not specify how the 0.1% figure is calculated.
AI agents are subject to criteria that combine capability and accuracy. For tool-calling technology, for example, the conditions include integrating 200 or more third-party tools and tool-selection accuracy of 90% or higher. It also requires an average success rate of 90% or higher in completing a series of tasks where three or more types of tools must be combined. The provision does not regulate by the number of tools alone.
On computing infrastructure, a cluster with more than 10,000 AI accelerator cards is defined as "large-scale." The proposal also covers high-speed interconnects of 800 GB/s or more bidirectional that are used in such clusters, as well as technology for recovering distributed training from failures. Together with design technology for AI processing chips and memory chips, the proposed scope extends from the distribution of finished models to the infrastructure used to build and run them.
Technology transfer abroad versus use of a service
Even for the same restricted model, the treatment differs: API provision falls outside controls, local deployment overseas is subject to controls, and new open-source releases are eligible for measures such as automatic licensing. This is how the Ministry of Commerce explained treatment after formal implementation on October 16, 2026.
The table below sorts the AI-related answers in the official Q&A by treatment after formal implementation and by facilitation measures.
| Form of overseas deployment or release | Treatment explained by the Ministry of Commerce | Scope and conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Local deployment overseas of export-restricted AI technology | Subject to technology export controls | When restricted technology moves from inside China to abroad |
| Deployment on a company's own overseas cloud, etc. | Within scope, but facilitation such as automatic licensing applies | Where risk is relatively easy to manage |
| API calls, apps/web access, SaaS | Outside technology export controls for large AI models | When provided using an export-restricted large AI model |
| Lightweight on-device deployment | Outside technology export controls for large AI models | A lightweight form of deployment cited as an example by the ministry |
| Technology already in the public domain through open source or papers | Excluded from the scope of controls | Conditional on already being public |
| Technology exports when releasing AI technology as open source in the future | Facilitation such as automatic licensing | Explained separately from the exclusion of already-published technology |
The table sorts the same-day explanation of the proposed system by form, and it is not a table for determining current interim registration obligations. Nor can the explanation about API provision be stretched to mean that all AI technologies and transactions fall outside controls.
"Outside controls" and "automatic licensing" are different. The former means falling outside the scope of the relevant technology export controls; the latter assumes the item is controlled and simplifies the procedure. The Ministry of Commerce said it will also provide facilitation such as automatic licensing for technology exports tied to computing sites that Chinese companies build and operate themselves overseas, and to trial semiconductor manufacturing abroad.
The distinction suggests that considerations differ for developers using published models and for companies that receive technology from China and deploy it locally. The explanation that preserves access to already-published technology and the explanation that sets procedures for future technology transfers are compatible. The announcement does not guarantee review times or the certainty of approval under automatic licensing.
Selling products versus taking manufacturing technology abroad
In solar power, the Ministry of Commerce says products manufactured using the covered technologies are not within the scope of controls. A transaction selling solar modules and a transaction handing over technology capable of manufacturing modules abroad have to be considered separately.
That does not mean all equipment is excluded, however. Certain key and core equipment listed in the announcement is covered if it incorporates technology that meets the control criteria. The explanation is that other solar equipment not listed is, in principle, not subject to this announcement. Confusing finished products, designated equipment and manufacturing technology can lead to reading the scope of controls as either too broad or too narrow.
Technology does not necessarily move abroad only through documents or patents. The Ministry of Commerce noted that key solar technology can be transferred not only through exports of production lines but also during installation and adjustment. For covered activities, including improvements and updates, it asks that applications be made for technology export licenses. The explanation is that work to operate a factory overseas can also involve technology transfer, so looking only at the handover of equipment is not enough to judge.
In biopharmaceuticals, the classification changes depending on how rights are transferred. A cell and gene therapy technology platform with proprietary intellectual property rights is cited as an example for the prohibited list, but the Ministry of Commerce explained that licensing such a platform for use abroad, and contract research and production services using the technology, are outside the controls. Where licensing technology for discovering and validating related new targets, automatic licensing and similar measures will apply.
In other words, even for technology in the same field, treatment varies depending on whether the technology itself or ownership is transferred, whether use is licensed, or whether it is provided as a service. Rather than carving out a special exception only for AI APIs, the approach of dividing cross-border technology transfers by form appears to run through all three fields.
Interim registration extends to unfinished transactions
Interim registration does not apply only to new exports. The announcement states that exports already started but not yet completed also fall within the scope of registration. For covered technologies, registration is required even while awaiting the outcome of the formal revision.
The forms requiring registration include transfers of ownership of intellectual property and similar rights abroad, and licensing for use abroad. It also applies when the owner of a technology in China, or its effective controller, changes to a foreign entity, and the Ministry of Commerce can designate additional forms. Exports of the covered key and core solar equipment must also be registered.
Exporters register basic information about the recipient and its country or region. They must also enter the technology, its use and the planned export value. Multiple technologies exported to the same counterparty at once may be entered together, but otherwise they should in principle be entered separately. The registration period runs from the October 16 publication of the announcement until the catalogue is formally revised and takes effect.
The current Regulations on Technology Import and Export Administration also define technology export as including technology transfer through investment and economic and technical cooperation, not just trade. Under the current system, prohibited technologies cannot be exported. Restricted technologies require a license, and export contracts take effect upon issuance of the license. The automatic licensing and other facilitation measures in this proposal are suggestions for how to simplify that control.
A model's public license is also separate from the conditions for receiving the next model. DeepSeek applied the MIT License to the repository containing weights for V3-0324, released in March 2025. A rights holder's permission to use something and regulation of new technology sent abroad from China fall under different systems. The proposal excludes technology already in the public domain while preparing automatic licensing for new releases, so the conditions for using a published model in hand are not the same as the conditions for obtaining a future update.
The Ministry of Commerce frames the revision as ordinary control to prevent technology from escaping control or spreading inappropriately, and says it is not aimed at any particular country, region or entity. Lian Jye Su of Omdia told AP it could also be seen as a response to Western demands for technological sovereignty.
The comment period continues until November 15. For overseas deployment and production-site plans, companies will need to deal with registration that has already begun, while also considering separately the processes that transfer technology and those that use a service. Once the final text makes the coverage criteria and the conditions for automatic licensing and similar measures more concrete, it should also become easier to judge in what form the next model or manufacturing technology can be received.