The average spot price for DDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) 3200MT/s, DRAM's mainstay product, rose from $39.8 on July 15, 2026 to $41.1 on July 21. According to TrendForce's weekly survey published on July 22, this represents a 3.27% increase, with inquiries concentrated on branded products from DRAM makers. However, suppliers have avoided selling at low prices, and buyers have not chased higher prices either. Rising prices and sluggish deal-making coexist, making it a situation where price alone cannot be taken as evidence of demand recovery.
During the same week, in NAND Flash, the average spot price for 512Gb TLC wafers fell 1.28% to $18.931 on July 20. A specific module maker anticipating strong enterprise SSD orders actively purchased stock, but this was not enough to offset weakness in the consumer segment. The opposite price movements in DRAM and NAND reflect supply-demand differences by product and sales channel that get obscured when viewing the memory market as a single entity.
Despite a 3.27% Rise, Deals Fail to Spread
The weekly increase for DDR4 amounted to $1.3. While this appears to be a clear price movement on the surface, TrendForce also reported that trading overall remained limited. Suppliers have been reluctant to sell at low prices, while buyers hesitate to chase prices after the increase. This price gap makes it difficult to convert inquiries into actual deals.
The concentration of inquiries on branded products also needs to be read narrowly. The survey does not disclose which manufacturers' products were sought, the industry or region of the inquiring parties, or the number of deals closed. What can be confirmed is only that buyers seeking branded products emerged, and their inquiries supported prices. It cannot be said with certainty that orders increased across the DRAM market as a whole.
Spot trading is a market where products needed at that moment are bought and sold on a case-by-case basis, and price formation differs from long-term contracts such as those between OEMs. If sellers tighten their inventory, quoted prices can rise even with low trading volume. This week's 3.27% increase strongly reflects that characteristic. To gauge the sustainability of the price rise, it will be necessary to watch whether inquiries for branded products continue into the following weeks, as well as whether buyers accept the quoted prices.
Over Five Weeks, a 14.8% Rise: Thin DDR4 Supply Supports Prices
The $41.1 price on July 21 is 14.8% higher than the $35.8 recorded on June 16. This is a simple comparison between two points in time and does not indicate price movements or trading volume in between. However, at both points—mid-June and late July—buyer inquiries and supplier reluctance to sell coexisted. At least at these two points, thin transaction volume has not directly led to price declines.
On the supply side, the allocation of production capacity toward highly profitable HBM and server applications is making it difficult to increase readily available DDR4 inventory. TrendForce explained at the end of March that DRAM makers shifted production capacity toward HBM and server applications in Q2 2026, reducing shipments to PC makers and module makers. Even though PC demand forecasts were revised downward, customers facing allocation shortages have no choice but to procure at high prices from manufacturers or module companies. This is why supply allocation continues to support prices even when demand for final products is sluggish.
Measures to expand DDR4 supply are underway, but they will not be in time for July's spot market. In May, Micron announced the start of 1α-generation DDR4 production at its Manassas, Virginia plant in the US, and that it would quadruple DDR4 wafer supply from that facility. However, production of certified products is scheduled to continue until the end of 2026, with the main destinations being sectors requiring long-term supply, such as automotive, defense/aerospace, and industrial equipment. Even though expansion plans exist, there is no guarantee that readily available DDR4 for mainstream PC use will become abundant in the short term.
NAND: Strong Enterprise Demand, Weak Consumer Demand
In NAND, opposing forces were at work. A specific module maker anticipating strong enterprise SSD orders increased its inventory in the spot market in response to supplier wafer shortages and rising quoted prices. This buying temporarily halted the price decline, but many buyers have reached the limits of their cost tolerance. With weak consumer orders and a lack of support from large-scale purchases, 512Gb TLC wafer prices fell 1.28% for the week.
The decline is not limited to a single week's movement. The price of 512Gb TLC fell approximately 11.7%, from $21.431 on June 15 to $18.931 on July 20. The stockpiling by a specific company confirmed in the week through July 20 was not enough to reverse the weekly decline. The fact that demand for enterprise SSDs is strong cannot be extended to mean a broader recovery in spot demand for NAND wafers overall.
This is also not inconsistent with the overall supply-shortage outlook for the NAND market. On July 21, TrendForce estimated that the NAND market would face a supply shortage of 4-5% in 2026. While servers account for over 40% of total bit demand, smartphones and notebook PCs combined also account for roughly 40%. Even as server demand pushes up bit-based demand, inventory continues to build up among module makers closer to the consumer segment. When product specifications and distribution stages differ, an annual supply shortage and a spot decline in specific wafers can occur simultaneously.
The Next Turning Point: Transaction Volume, Not Price
For DDR4, the next key indicator is not the $41.1 price level itself, but whether buyers will place orders at that level. If inquiries continue but deals remain thin, the price rise will remain heavily dependent on sellers' inventory stance. Conversely, if multiple buyers begin securing branded products, real demand will layer onto thin supply, changing the nature of the increase.
For NAND, it will be worth watching whether restocking driven by enterprise SSDs spreads from the one unnamed company to other module makers. If consumer orders remain weak, downward pressure on 512Gb TLC spot prices will persist even amid an annual supply shortage. Will DRAM shift toward a price rise accompanied by actual deals? Will NAND's localized restocking spread across the broader market? The next round of weekly data will require reading not just the direction of prices, but the breadth of trading as well.