Apple's first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, saw its estimated shipping date in Japan slip to January 2027 just hours after pre-orders opened on October 16. According to ITmedia, by just after 10 p.m. that day, every color and storage configuration at the Japanese Apple Store showed "ships January 22." Apple's announced release date is October 23, and pre-orders had opened only at 9 p.m. on the 16th.
Despite a starting price of 364,800 yen including tax, the early delivery slots appear to have filled within a short time. Meanwhile, in China, reports had emerged before official pre-orders began that Apple had increased its orders by 30%. To make sense of a situation in which orders are rising yet lead times are lengthening, it helps to separate the number of people who want to buy from the number of units that can actually be supplied.
Changing color or capacity made no difference to delivery dates
According to iPhone Mania's own tracking, which continuously recorded delivery estimates right after pre-orders opened, all eight configurations showed a delivery date of January 23, 2027, as of 9:30 p.m. on October 16. The estimate had been October 23 at 9:00 p.m., moved to November 10–17 at 9:02 p.m., and then to December 9–16 at 9:15 p.m., slipping back in stages within a short span. The survey covered SIM-free models, with no trade-in, payment in full, and no AppleCare.
In this survey, the delivery estimate was the same at each observation time for every combination of the two colors and four storage capacities. There is no sign that avoiding a popular color or choosing a larger-capacity model would get the phone to you sooner. Apple's direct-sales prices including tax are 364,800 yen for 256GB, 399,800 yen for 512GB, 469,800 yen for 1TB and 574,800 yen for 2TB. At least in this record, paying extra for more storage did not bring the delivery date forward.
However, home delivery and in-store pickup told different stories. At 9:08 p.m., iPhone Mania confirmed that in-store pickup slots remained for the 256GB and 512GB models in Night Sky. Around 9:15 p.m., some stores, including in Nagoya, also reportedly showed the 2TB model as available for pickup on launch day. Even as delivery wait times grew longer, some stores still had launch-day pickup slots.
All of these are observations from the night of October 16 and do not guarantee later stock conditions. Also, ITmedia confirmed "ships January 22," while iPhone Mania recorded "estimated delivery January 23," so the dates differ in meaning as well as in the time they were checked. The product's launch itself was not postponed to next year; what lengthened was the shipping and delivery estimate for a new order placed at each point in time.
Why four figures can't be compared as sales numbers
Several figures have been reported around the iPhone Duo: "more than 2.01 million pre-registrations," "a 30% increase in orders," "shipping next year in Japan," and "a forecast of about 6 million units sold this year." But these differ in region, timing and what they count, so they cannot be added together or compared directly as sales volumes. It is necessary to sort out which stage of demand and supply each figure represents.
| Figure / indication | Region and timing | What is counted and under what conditions |
|---|---|---|
| 2.01 million+ pre-registrations | China, JD.com, 2 p.m. on October 10 | A free purchase-intent registration confirmed by a Securities Times reporter. Not a count of buyers who have paid |
| 30% order increase, total at or below 10 million units | Reported October 10, orders for the autumn product lineup | An order plan based on Securities Times' supply-chain reporting. Does not indicate actual sales or when the additional units will ship |
| Ships January 22, 2027 | Japan, just after 10 p.m. on October 16 | Shipping estimate at the Apple Store as confirmed by ITmedia. Not the total number of orders in Japan or actual units shipped |
| About 6 million units sold this year | Worldwide, 2026 forecast published September 30 | Counterpoint's sales forecast. Assumes mass production ramps up |
The figure needing the most care is the "more than 2.01 million reservations" reported in China. According to Securities Times, this is the number of purchase-intent registrations on the e-commerce site JD.com, and registering does not require payment. Official pre-orders in China began at 8 p.m. on October 16, at the same moment as in Japan. A large number of pre-registrations therefore shows strong interest in the product, but it cannot be treated as sales volume.
The delivery dates stretching months out in Japan likewise show that a large gap opened between orders and initial supply, but not the specific unit numbers. It is impossible to tell whether the quantity prepared was small to begin with, whether orders exceeded Apple's expectations, or both. Sales scale cannot be back-calculated from long lead times alone.
A 30% order increase doesn't necessarily mean more shipments to Japan right away
The order increase was reported by China's Securities Times. On October 10, reporter Yan Cui, drawing on interviews with Apple supply-chain companies, wrote that orders for the iPhone Duo had risen 30% but that total orders still had not exceeded 10 million units. This is information from supply-chain sources, however, not a production figure announced officially by Apple.
The timing of the report also matters. It came six days before official pre-orders began, so it is not a story of Apple raising orders in response to the October 16 pre-order situation. The article also did not disclose the pre-increase order quantity, when the additional units would be delivered, or the allocation to the Japanese market. A 30% order increase alone therefore does not tell Japanese buyers when they will get the product.
In any case, a manufacturer's orders and the number of finished products delivered to consumers are different things. After orders are placed, manufacturing and inspection are required, and finished products are allocated by region and retailer. Even if production plans are raised upstream, that does not necessarily lead to an immediate rise in shipments. Particularly while initial supply is limited, it may take time for the effect of additional orders to show up in actual lead times.
According to Apple, the iPhone Duo uses a complex structure in which the hinge alone contains more than 100 parts. The hinge supports the center of the screen when open and also controls the motion when folding. Still, it cannot be concluded from this mechanical complexity alone that the hinge is the cause of the current shortage. The reports on increased orders likewise do not say when the additional units will ship as finished products.
What matters for buyers is less the rate of increase in orders than the lead time if they order now. The fact that home-delivery and in-store pickup availability differed on the night of October 16 suggests that the time at which you can get the product may vary depending on where you buy and how you receive it.
On social media: joy at securing a pre-order, frustration at being unable to order
On the English-language iPhone Duo community on Reddit, a thread appeared after pre-orders opened saying delivery estimates had turned to 2027 within 30 minutes. The poster, StuccoGecko, spoke of excitement about an iPhone whose form has changed significantly for the first time in a while. Among the comments are users like BanginAloo, who was glad to have secured launch-day in-store pickup, while Southernboyj reported that a site error slowed the checkout process and left a delivery estimate in December.
Not all reactions were favorable, however. Comfortable-Night-85 pointed out the possibility not only that the phone was more popular than expected but also that Apple had initially prepared a small quantity. Even in users' exchanges about pre-orders, strong demand and limited supply are not necessarily seen as the same thing.
Such posts are self-reported by individual users and limited to one English-language community. They do not represent Japanese buyers as a whole, let alone social media as a whole. Even so, they suggest that anticipation about trying a newly shaped iPhone early and frustration over confusion in the pre-order process and long waits are arising at the same time.
The iPhone Duo uses a display that becomes 7.6 inches when opened. Apple says it supports multitasking with multiple apps at once, and a different way of using the phone from conventional iPhones is expected. Whether consumers drawn to such features will accept a price above 360,000 yen and keep buying is a separate question, however. The excitement of the first day of pre-orders alone cannot be used to judge long-term demand.
Foldable market growth depends on being able to mass-produce
According to IDC's market forecast published August 26, global foldable smartphone shipments in 2026 are expected to reach 22.9 million units, up 12.6% from the previous year. The backdrop is the view that Apple's entry will boost market growth. However, this forecast was published before iPhone Duo pre-orders opened and is not a sales result reflecting the current order situation.
Counterpoint's September 30 forecast that iPhone Duo sales will reach about 6 million units this year also assumes that mass production ramps up. Moreover, IDC's figure refers to shipments for the foldable smartphone market as a whole, while Counterpoint's number refers to iPhone Duo sales. Because the metrics being counted differ, Apple's market share cannot be calculated by simple division.
The fact that early delivery slots filled right after pre-orders opened suggests strong interest in the iPhone Duo, but it is still too early to judge the product's commercial success. What will matter going forward is whether shipments to pre-order customers proceed smoothly, whether differences in lead times by region and pickup method narrow, and whether sales continue after the initial demand settles. If Apple can turn additional orders into stable supply, the iPhone Duo could move from a product that only a limited number of people can get on launch day toward a foldable iPhone that more consumers can choose after comparing uses and price.