The LTO Program has announced that the capacity of LTO tape shipped in 2025 totaled 160.3EB (exabytes). While this represents a 9% decrease from 2024's record high of 176.5EB, it still ranks as the second-highest annual figure on record. Furthermore, Q1 2026 saw a reversal, with a 57% year-over-year increase. However, these two figures—the annual decline and the quarterly rebound—do not guarantee that 2026 will set a new annual record. ## After Falling to 160.3EB, Q1 Surges 57% The shipment capacity figures published by the LTO Program are converted values that assume a 2.5-to-1 data compression ratio. The 160.3EB figure represents neither the number of cartridges sold nor the actual amount of data written by users. It should be read as a market indicator that converts media shipments by generation into capacity terms. This distinction is essential for interpreting the 57% increase in Q1 2026. If the proportion of high-capacity LTO-10 in the shipment mix rises, the converted capacity increases even if the number of units sold remains the same. Since this announcement did not include the number of cartridges shipped in Q1 or the breakdown by generation, the 57% figure cannot be taken at face value as an increase in customer numbers or deployment cases. In 2024, shipments set a new record of 176.5EB, up 15.4% year-over-year, but 2025 saw a decline of 16.2EB from that peak. Storage analyst Tom Coughlin believes that changes in the international trade environment led companies to become more cautious in their procurement and inventory decisions, contributing to the decline. This is his analysis, and a causal link to the trade environment cannot be definitively established from shipment statistics alone. Regarding the 57% increase in Q1 2026, the LTO Program explains that continued shipments of LTO-9 alongside the ramp-up of LTO-10 contributed to the growth. It also cites increased demand for AI-related storage expansion, traditional archiving, and backups against cyberattacks as demand drivers, but it has not disclosed the shipment ratio by use case. Therefore, it cannot be definitively stated that "AI reversed tape demand." What can be confirmed is only that 2026 began with shipment capacity significantly exceeding that of Q1 2025. ## 40TB Media Works with the Same LTO-10 Drives The new LTO-10 cartridge introduced in early 2026 holds 40TB uncompressed, and up to 100TB assuming a 2.5-to-1 compression ratio. The previous LTO-10 media offered 30TB uncompressed and 75TB compressed. This represents roughly a 33% increase in uncompressed capacity per cartridge. The 100TB compressed figure is not a guaranteed capacity. The actual amount of data that can be stored varies depending on how compressible the data is. When comparing physical storage density, it is safer to use the 40TB uncompressed capacity as the benchmark. The capacity increase was achieved using a thin, smooth aramid-based base film. By making the tape thinner, more of it can be wound into a cartridge of the same external dimensions. The LTO Program states that this base film, combined with the LTO-10 drive head design, made the 40TB capacity possible. The 40TB media can be read and written using the same LTO-10 drives used for 30TB media. For companies that have already deployed LTO-10, this means they can increase storage capacity per slot without replacing their drives. However, calling this "complete backward compatibility" would not be entirely accurate. LTO-10 drives can only handle 30TB and 40TB LTO-10 media; they cannot read or write LTO-9 or earlier media. When deploying, organizations should not simply look at the drives alone but should verify that the 40TB media is certified within their entire configuration, including libraries and management software. ## Power Savings and Air-Gap Security Depend on Operating Conditions One reason tape is being reevaluated in data centers is that the media itself does not need to be powered while storing infrequently accessed data. Compared to configurations where HDDs or SSDs run continuously, moving rarely accessed data to a tape tier can reduce power consumption during storage. The LTO Program presents estimates suggesting that under certain archival conditions, LTO consumes 96% less power than HDDs. However, this does not mean the entire tape library consumes zero power. Drives, transport robots, and control systems all require power, and reading data requires loading and running the media. The extent of power savings varies depending on how frequently data is accessed, retention periods, and the disk configuration being compared. The same applies to cyber resilience. Removing cartridges from a library or completely disconnecting a system from the network can create a physical air gap. This cuts off the pathway for network-based attackers to directly encrypt offline media, but simply using tape does not automatically establish an air gap. Operations must also include managing connection states, the number of offline copy generations, and restoration testing. Given these characteristics, tape is not suited as primary storage supporting real-time inference, but rather for infrequently referenced training data, backups, and long-term storage for regulatory compliance. The tier that continuously feeds data to GPUs is handled by flash and HDDs, with tape positioned behind that layer. This represents tiering, not replacement. ## 365TB Uncompressed, 913TB as a Compressed Target According to the roadmap updated by the LTO Program in November 2025, the target for LTO-14 is approximately 365TB of uncompressed capacity per cartridge, reaching 913TB at 2.5-to-1 compression. This 913TB figure represents not the uncompressed capacity but a target value assuming compression. The LTO Program itself explicitly states that the roadmap indicates future direction and targets, which may change or be withdrawn, and does not guarantee achievement. Even as density increases, tape's inherent constraints remain. Reading a target file requires loading and positioning the media, making it unsuited for the low-latency random access that SSDs and HDDs provide. As storage capacity increases, the time and transfer bandwidth required to write, verify, and restore the entire volume also become significant factors in operational design. Supply chain considerations also warrant attention. The Register has reported that actual manufacturing of magnetic tape media for LTO is concentrated among Fujifilm and Sony. While LTO is an open format supplied by multiple companies, this does not mean the manufacturers of the recording media itself are diversified. Large-scale users need to consider media procurement sources and inventory separately from drive compatibility. The 57% increase in Q1 2026 serves as evidence that strong demand remains in the tape market even after the 2025 decline. However, setting a new annual record remains, for now, merely a prospect within the LTO Program's outlook. Once the full-year 2026 compressed-equivalent shipment capacity and the proportion of 40TB media in the mix become clear, it will be possible to determine whether this increase represented a concentrated burst of early adoption orders or marked the beginning of sustained long-term growth.