CulpiumのアナリストTim Culpan氏が報告したところによると、TSMCは約10億ドル分のApple向けチップをDRAM待ちの状態で抱えているという。However, the amount, the specific chips involved, the process stage at which they are stuck, and the source of this information cannot be confirmed through official materials. Meanwhile, Apple has significantly increased its inventory and explained that memory prices continue to rise. TSMC has also seen its days of inventory increase, but the company cited the N2 ramp-up as the primary reason. Rather than treating the report and the two companies' disclosures as the same set of figures, we need to distinguish what has actually been confirmed. ## Gaps Remain in the Reported $1 Billion Figure What Culpan氏 reported is that approximately $1 billion worth of Apple-bound chips are stuck at TSMC, awaiting DRAM procurement. What can be confirmed here is only that this claim was reported. The method used to calculate the amount, the type of chips involved, and whether they are wafers, dies, or packaged SoCs are not specified. Neither Apple's nor TSMC's official materials disclose this approximately $1 billion figure or the stranded Apple-bound chips individually. Therefore, it cannot be interpreted as meaning TSMC is unable to deliver to Apple, or that the affected units resulted in losses or scrapping. To assess the accuracy of the report, either DRAM specifications and suppliers, or back-end processes and ownership, would need to be disclosed by one of the two companies or related firms. ## Apple's Inventory Grew to $11.092 Billion Apple's inventory as of June 27, 2026, stood at $11.092 billion. This represents an increase of $5.374 billion from $5.718 billion as of September 27, 2025. Furthermore, in the cash flow statement for the nine months ending on that date, the increase in inventory was recorded as a $5.461 billion use of cash. In the same period the previous year, this figure was a $1.223 billion source of cash, meaning the direction of inventory movement has reversed. Apple's 10-Q also provides a breakdown. Components stood at $7.645 billion, up from $2.124 billion at the end of September 2025. Finished goods, meanwhile, decreased to $3.447 billion from $3.594 billion in the same period. The increase came not from finished goods but primarily from the components side. This consolidated inventory figure cannot be added to or subtracted from the approximately $1 billion in Apple-bound chips reportedly held by TSMC, nor can it be used to estimate the amount stranded at TSMC based on Apple's inventory. That said, it does provide grounds for considering the possibility that Apple is building up a buffer of components in preparation for procurement and supply uncertainty. ## The Cushioning Effect of Carried-Over Inventory Will Shrink After September During its Q3 FY2026 earnings call on July 30, 2026, Apple indicated that memory prices continue to rise and that memory costs in the September quarter are expected to exceed those of the June quarter. CEO Tim Cook described memory prices as a "100-year flood," suggesting the possibility of further increases beyond the September quarter. According to CFO Kevan Parekh, carried-over inventory offset part of the memory cost increase in the June quarter, and this effect is expected to persist into the September quarter as well. However, this effect will diminish after September. Securing inventory in advance can serve as a temporary buffer, but it is not a means of permanently eliminating cost pressure in a period of continuously rising memory prices. In its 10-Q, Apple also stated that supply constraints and cost increases are occurring for components including advanced semiconductors, NAND, and DRAM, and that these could intensify further going forward. It noted that attempting to absorb these costs through price increases carries the risk of weakening demand. Apple itself is treating the memory issue not as a temporary procurement delay, but as a business risk that could affect revenue and gross margin. ## TSMC's Days of Inventory Rose to 87 Amid N2 Ramp-Up TSMC's inventory for Q2 2026 stood at NT$385.53 billion, with days of inventory at 87. In the previous quarter, the figures were NT$311.45 billion and 80 days, while in the same quarter the previous year, they were NT$304.19 billion and 76 days. The company cited the N2 ramp-up as the primary reason for the increase in days of inventory. TSMC describes itself as a dedicated semiconductor foundry, stating that in 2025 it manufactured 12,682 products for 534 customers. In Q2 2026, advanced technologies of 7nm and below accounted for 77% of wafer revenue. This consolidated inventory figure, which covers all customers and all processes, does not represent a breakdown specific to Apple. TSMC's NT$385.53 billion figure cannot serve as grounds for the claim of Apple-bound chips awaiting DRAM. The company's Q2 revenue was $40.201 billion, up 33.7% year-over-year. 2nm has only just begun ramping up, accounting for 3% of wafer revenue, while 3nm and 5nm accounted for 30% and 33%, respectively. What TSMC explained was that the N2 ramp-up was the primary reason for the increase in days of inventory—not a breakdown of the overall inventory amount. At least within the scope of publicly available materials, there is no basis for linking this to Apple-bound DRAM shortages. ## Logic Chips and DRAM Travel Through Separate Supply Chains The SoCs and application processors used in Apple products are separate components from DRAM and LPDDR within the supply chain, with different suppliers. In final products, they may be integrated into the same substrate, package, or assembly process. This means that if the TechPowerUp report is accurate, it would suggest that synchronization between logic chips manufactured at TSMC and memory secured through a separate supply chain broke down somewhere along the line. However, this report does not specify which products, which memory specifications, which back-end companies, or where exactly the bottleneck occurred. While Apple's inventory increase indicates a move to secure components in advance, it remains unclear whether the increase involves memory specifically. Similarly, TSMC's official explanation for its increased days of inventory is limited to the N2 ramp-up. Future earnings calls and procurement disclosures—specifically, how much of its component inventory Apple draws down, and whether TSMC provides additional explanation regarding specific customers or process stages—will offer clues for verifying the reported $1 billion figure.