Details have emerged about Apple's long-running effort to develop its own 5G modem. According to a report by Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, the company plans to gradually transition to its own in-house modem over a three-year period, starting with the next-generation iPhone SE in 2025. This is an ambitious initiative aimed at reducing dependence on Qualcomm and, ultimately, surpassing its performance.
The Full Picture of a Three-Phase Rollout Plan
Apple's plan for adopting 5G modems consists of three carefully designed phases, tailored to product categories and performance requirements.
Phase one begins in 2025, with the first in-house modem being installed in the iPhone SE, entry-level iPad models, and a new model referred to as the "iPhone 17 Air." This modem is said to achieve theoretical speeds of up to 4Gbps, which, while somewhat slower than Qualcomm's current modems, is considered sufficient for real-world usage. The modem also supports dual SIM standby, allowing two SIM cards to be active simultaneously. Furthermore, tight integration with Apple's in-house designed chips is expected to bring benefits such as improved power efficiency, more efficient cellular service scanning, and better connectivity with satellite networks.
Phase two shifts to 2026, with a second-generation modem supporting mmWave being adopted for the iPhone 18 Pro series and iPad Pro, which demand more advanced capabilities. This new modem is planned to achieve theoretical speeds of up to 6Gbps. Support for mmWave will enable ultra-high-speed communication in urban areas, meeting the more demanding data communication needs of professional-grade products.
The final phase is scheduled for 2027, with the introduction of a third-generation modem currently being developed internally under the codename "Prometheus." This modem is expected to implement innovative features not yet disclosed, including AI capabilities and support for next-generation satellite communication networks. Apple aims to surpass Qualcomm's products in performance with this final phase, and reportedly is also considering integrating its own modem into the iPhone's A-series chips once this is achieved.
These three phases represent a plan that carefully takes into account the requirements and technical maturity of each product category. What's particularly notable is that clear technical targets have been set for each phase, with a phased rollout planned according to the performance requirements of each product category. This meticulous planning echoes the careful and reliable approach to technology transitions that Apple previously demonstrated during its shift from Intel processors to the M1 chip.
Technical Challenges and Strategic Significance
However, the initial modems do come with certain technical constraints. While current Qualcomm modems support 6-carrier aggregation, Apple's first-generation modem will only support up to 4 carriers. It also won't initially support the mmWave technology that carriers like Verizon deploy in certain urban areas.
However, these constraints appear to be the result of strategic decisions. Modem development is extremely complex, and issues like dropped calls or missed notifications can be fatal flaws for a product. This is likely why Apple has chosen a cautious approach, starting the rollout with relatively low-risk, entry-level products.
Xenospectrum's Take
Apple's plan to develop its own modems represents the next major step in the company's silicon strategy. The fact that it has taken roughly six years to bring this to fruition since acquiring Intel's modem business in 2019 speaks to the technical difficulty of modem development.
What's interesting is the carefully planned transition timeline, which appears to be timed with the expiration of Apple's patent licensing agreement with Qualcomm in March 2027. This is also a reflection of Apple's signature phased transition strategy, as demonstrated with the introduction of the M1 chip.
That said, in the world of wireless technology, Qualcomm's technical edge remains formidable, and whether Apple can truly overcome that barrier by 2027 remains uncertain. Ultimately, this may not simply be a technological competition, but rather one move in a long-term strategy for dominance in the smartphone industry.
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