On September 3, 2026, TrendForce released a forecast predicting that new iPhone 18 models will see price increases of 10 to 20%. The firm's outlook suggests that a sharp rise in memory component procurement costs will ripple through to retail prices. The foldable model is expected to start somewhere between $2,099 and $2,299, though none of these figures come from an official Apple announcement.
In Japan, care is needed when choosing a baseline for comparison. The 256GB iPhone 17 Pro launched at 179,800 yen, but as of an Apple Store check on September 4, it now costs 194,800 yen. Only by separating this mid-cycle price revision from the pricing history of past models with matching storage capacities can we see how much the burden might grow with the next generation.
Why rising memory costs affect device prices
TrendForce projects that procurement costs for the memory components used in the 256GB Pro models will rise roughly 400% year-over-year in the July-September 2026 quarter—nearly five times what they cost the previous year. Here, "256GB" refers to the storage configuration, not an increase in RAM to 256GB. DRAM is memory used to temporarily hold data during processing, while NAND is the storage medium used to save photos, apps, and other files. Since the public materials don't break down the cost split or absolute figures between the two, it cannot be concluded that NAND alone is rising 400% in price.
In July, TrendForce noted that as memory makers prioritize supply for AI applications, the availability of low-power mobile DRAM has tightened, and NAND allocation is increasingly shifting toward enterprise SSDs. Even without particularly strong device sales, changes in how component makers allocate supply can put pressure on smartphone manufacturers' procurement costs.
In its August forecast, TrendForce projected that the bill of materials (BOM) for the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro would run 38% higher than the same-capacity iPhone 17 Pro, with memory's share of the BOM rising from roughly 10% to 34%. The BOM represents the total cost of the components that make up a device. Because there are also costs involved in selling the device, a 38% rise in parts cost cannot simply be translated into a 38% rise in the retail price, nor can Apple's gross margin be derived from this figure alone.
If memory accounts for roughly a third of the parts cost, it becomes difficult to offset that increase just by sourcing other components a bit more cheaply. Even with the same 256GB configuration, the forecast points to higher procurement costs. Users who don't need any new features could still feel the effects of this cost increase if they upgrade to the next-generation model with the same storage capacity.
What's different compared with the past three generations
For the 256GB Pro Max, the U.S. launch price stayed at $1,199 across all three generations, while in Japan it climbed from 189,800 yen to 194,800 yen.
| Generation | Model | Minimum Capacity | U.S. Launch Price | Japan Launch Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 15 | Pro | 128GB | $999 | 159,800 yen |
| iPhone 15 | Pro Max | 256GB | $1,199 | 189,800 yen |
| iPhone 16 | Pro | 128GB | $999 | 159,800 yen |
| iPhone 16 | Pro Max | 256GB | $1,199 | 189,800 yen |
| iPhone 17 | Pro | 256GB | $1,099 | 179,800 yen |
| iPhone 17 | Pro Max | 256GB | $1,199 | 194,800 yen |
All prices reflect each model's launch date; U.S. prices exclude sales tax, while Japan's include tax. These figures, drawn from Apple's own announcements, represent prices before any trade-in credit or carrier discounts.
The apparent price increase for the Pro line is muddled by a change in minimum storage capacity. The 17 Pro moved from 128GB to 256GB, and its Japan launch price rose by 20,000 yen. The Pro Max, by contrast, kept a 256GB minimum across all three generations; while its U.S. price held steady at $1,199, its Japan price rose from 189,800 yen (for the 15 and 16 series) to 194,800 yen for the 17—a jump of 5,000 yen, or about 2.6%. Because its capacity stayed consistent, the Pro Max serves as a useful benchmark for reading regional price trends over time.
For the Pro, the shift to the 17th generation eliminated the cheaper 128GB option altogether. For those who needed the extra storage, this was simply an upgrade—but for those who were satisfied with 128GB, it meant the minimum price required for purchase went up. A price increase for the same capacity and the disappearance of a cheaper configuration affect different groups of buyers. Reading the price tags for the 18th generation will likewise require considering both the starting price and the capacity on offer.
What 2nm and variable aperture bring to the table
TrendForce forecasts that the A20 Pro chip—used in the Pro, Pro Max, and foldable models—will be built on TSMC's 2nm process and will shift memory packaging from InFO to WMCM. The aim, reportedly, is to shorten signal paths and make heat easier to manage. TrendForce also predicts a mechanical variable aperture for the Pro. This is a mechanism that physically adjusts the amount of light passing through the lens, a different function from the software-based background blur processing.
However, the 2nm process node alone cannot tell us how battery life or camera image quality will turn out. Packaging improvements relate to signals and heat around the chip itself; dissipating that heat through the device's chassis is a separate matter. In fact, Apple already implemented the A19 Pro, an aluminum chassis, and a vapor chamber in the iPhone 17 Pro—cooling improvements are not something being introduced for the first time with the 18th generation.
The 16 Pro featured the A18 Pro, a second-generation 3nm process, and 5x telephoto. With the 17 Pro, the telephoto lens also reached 48MP, giving all three rear cameras matching 48MP sensors. Where past models added pixel count and telephoto range, the variable aperture predicted for the 18 would add a new optical adjustment tool. Exactly what changes for photography depends on which specific components get updated.
The value of a variable aperture lies in being able to adjust light intake and depth of field at the moment of shooting by changing the opening size. That said, how much adjustment is actually possible depends on the lens and aperture range that ships with the device. Cooling, too, matters less for short bursts of peak performance and more for whether performance can be sustained during extended photo or gaming sessions. Verifying image quality and sustained performance after launch will be the real measure of whether the upgrade is worth it.
In Japan, separate launch price from current price
As checked on the Apple Store on September 4, the 17 Pro 256GB costs 194,800 yen and the 17 Pro Max 256GB costs 214,800 yen—15,000 yen and 20,000 yen higher than their respective launch prices.
The following is a simple exercise to visualize the range of possible spending, assuming Japan sees the same percentage increase. It is not a forecast table for the new models' Japan pricing.
| Current 256GB Price (incl. tax) | Assuming +10% | Assuming +20% | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Pro: 194,800 yen | 214,280 yen | 233,760 yen | 19,480–38,960 yen |
| 17 Pro Max: 214,800 yen | 236,280 yen | 257,760 yen | 21,480–42,960 yen |
Applying the same percentage increase to current Japan pricing would put the Pro at roughly 214,000 to 234,000 yen, and the Pro Max at roughly 236,000 to 258,000 yen.
These figures were calculated as current price × 1.10 and current price × 1.20. However, applying a percentage increase derived from a year-over-year comparison against the already-revised current Japan price risks double-counting the earlier revision. Nor is there any indication that the same percentage will actually apply in Japan.
Once the new Japan prices are announced, it would be worth comparing them against both the 17th generation's launch price and its current price. The former measures the price change across generations, while the latter measures the additional cost of upgrading right now. Even when using trade-in credit or carrier discounts, aligning the terms around the device cost for the needed capacity makes it easier to compare burdens that aren't always visible in monthly payment displays alone.
Foldable pricing, and a standard model pushed to spring
The foldable device that TrendForce refers to by the working name "iPhone 18 Fold" is expected to start between $2,099 and $2,299, with higher-end configurations potentially exceeding $3,000. Compared to the iPhone 17 Pro Max's U.S. launch price of $1,199, that's roughly 1.75 to 1.92 times higher. Since capacity and form factor differ, this isn't an apples-to-apples price comparison. If the forecast holds, the foldable would open up a price tier well above the Pro Max.
TrendForce predicts the Fold will feature a dual-camera setup and a capacitive fingerprint sensor, and anticipates constraints on initial supply. The firm estimates foldables will account for roughly 2% of the global smartphone market in 2026. Where the traditional Pro line has refined its triple-camera system, the foldable will need to balance thinness with the folding mechanism. A higher price doesn't necessarily mean the foldable will surpass the Pro in every aspect of photography. Japanese yen pricing and domestic availability dates have not been announced.
TrendForce's forecast that the standard iPhone 18 will launch between January and March 2027 also has implications for upgrade planning in Japan. It raises the possibility that those wanting to buy a Pro or Pro Max in the fall and those hoping to upgrade at a lower price point won't be able to choose at the same time. For those waiting on the standard model, how the older models get priced before the spring launch will also be worth watching. In August, TrendForce also raised the possibility that Apple might raise prices on older models in response to rising component costs—meaning the arrival of a new generation doesn't necessarily mean price cuts for the old one.
What's worth confirming first, once the fall lineup launches, is when—and at what total cost—the needed storage capacity can actually be obtained. For the foldable, domestic availability as well as repair and warranty terms will also factor heavily into long-term costs. Whether the camera performance and usability justify the price increase is a judgment that will need to be made alongside those conditions.